Fmr. State Department N. Korea analyst: Rushing N. Korean denuclearization won't work
- 6 years ago
The landmark summit in Singapore might not have produced what many see as a *specific agreement on denuclearizing North Korea,... but a veteran U.S. State Department analyst says,... a slow but a steady approach could win the race in the long run.
Our Oh Soo-young sat down with John Merrill.... a former chief of Northeast Asia Division in the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
You've been at the State Department for nearly 30 years,… seeing a number of U.S. presidents come and go. What sets the Trump administration apart in terms of North Korea Policy. Is it close to successfully denuclearizing the North?
The verdict is still out on whether it will be successful. But I think the summit was a very promising start.
I think Trump is different from his predecessors in a number of important ways. He's a dealmaker, and he knows that the first thing you have to do in a negotiation is to establish rapport with your opposite member.
So I think he's been much prepared to do that with the North Koreans than his predecessors who were more standoffish.
So I think that approach has produced the results and he's been helped by the fact that he's dealing with a new type of leader and a progressive president in the South.
Well, there's been some concern over the apparent downsizing of joint military drills between South Korea and the U.S. You've said halting such war games could enable engagement and even a deal with North Korea. Do you stand by this position?
Yes. But with some qualification. I've never advocated doing away with exercises entirely.
I think these war games grew to over the top exercises. When you have three air craft carrier battle, with three air wings and all those planes, many of those planes are nuclear capable. That's too much. Especially when you're trying to convince North Korea to do is denuclearize. It sends the opposite message.
Your secretary of state Mike Pompeo said there's no timeline on the denuclearization process.
Yes. I was very happy to see that and he's exactly right.
Sometimes the best is the enemy of the good and if we front load this process too much and demand complete
verifiable, irreversible, denuclearization, I'm not sure we will get much of anything. This is obviously something gonna take years. It's a process that needs to build momentum gradually.
So what would you say is the next step for the United States to secure the complete and verifiable denuclearization of North Korea?
I would say we have to go into this with our eyes open. And be patient.
Apparently we've submitted, or are about to submit, a list of asks to North Korea. I think it's unlikely we'll get all of what we want. What I would like to see is a down payment of denuclearization. I'd like to see North Korea send some fissile material out of the country. Maybe to the U.S. or China or some other. I'd like to see the IAEA back in there and progress on some other issues like human rights.
I see
Our Oh Soo-young sat down with John Merrill.... a former chief of Northeast Asia Division in the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
You've been at the State Department for nearly 30 years,… seeing a number of U.S. presidents come and go. What sets the Trump administration apart in terms of North Korea Policy. Is it close to successfully denuclearizing the North?
The verdict is still out on whether it will be successful. But I think the summit was a very promising start.
I think Trump is different from his predecessors in a number of important ways. He's a dealmaker, and he knows that the first thing you have to do in a negotiation is to establish rapport with your opposite member.
So I think he's been much prepared to do that with the North Koreans than his predecessors who were more standoffish.
So I think that approach has produced the results and he's been helped by the fact that he's dealing with a new type of leader and a progressive president in the South.
Well, there's been some concern over the apparent downsizing of joint military drills between South Korea and the U.S. You've said halting such war games could enable engagement and even a deal with North Korea. Do you stand by this position?
Yes. But with some qualification. I've never advocated doing away with exercises entirely.
I think these war games grew to over the top exercises. When you have three air craft carrier battle, with three air wings and all those planes, many of those planes are nuclear capable. That's too much. Especially when you're trying to convince North Korea to do is denuclearize. It sends the opposite message.
Your secretary of state Mike Pompeo said there's no timeline on the denuclearization process.
Yes. I was very happy to see that and he's exactly right.
Sometimes the best is the enemy of the good and if we front load this process too much and demand complete
verifiable, irreversible, denuclearization, I'm not sure we will get much of anything. This is obviously something gonna take years. It's a process that needs to build momentum gradually.
So what would you say is the next step for the United States to secure the complete and verifiable denuclearization of North Korea?
I would say we have to go into this with our eyes open. And be patient.
Apparently we've submitted, or are about to submit, a list of asks to North Korea. I think it's unlikely we'll get all of what we want. What I would like to see is a down payment of denuclearization. I'd like to see North Korea send some fissile material out of the country. Maybe to the U.S. or China or some other. I'd like to see the IAEA back in there and progress on some other issues like human rights.
I see