[In-depth] Global market wrap-up _ 050919
- 5 years ago
증시 대담
It's time now for a look at the market action here in Korea and around the world, and for that we're joined by Mr. Daniel Yoo, global strategist at Kiwoom Securities.
Mr. Yoo, thanks for coming on today.
You're welcome.
Let's start with Wall Street. Another session of pretty big losses there overnight, again on the U.S.-China trade tensions. Take us through the action, not only on Wall Street, but here in Asia too.
Global market continues to show volatility because of US-China trade dispute has not shown any answers yet.
Vice Minister Huh and Chinese negotiators are meeting in US to discuss the terms once again. Market will wait until any concrete results are released by the end of the week.
Chinese market continues to fall. Today another 1.2% decline.
Korean market also showed sharp drop as well. Today is option maturity date. This acted negatively to the market. Huge purchases of put option by foreign investors.
Also, weak intel results raised the concerns on semiconductor industry about the demand pickup in 2H. Therefore se show sharp drop in Korean equity market as Hynix down 4.7% and Samsung down 2.15%.
We're now just a day away from when this trade conflict is supposed to escalate. What do the markets see happening here?
Global market still quite worried about the US china trade war.
If tariff is raised, pressure on inflation will be high.
We estimate that inflation will go up by over 0.5% from current 2.% stable level.
This means no rate cut by Fed.
We expect the treaty will be signed because no country will be winner on this dispute as war never is.
Most likely scenario.
1. China delegate visit US
2. Good negotiation
3. US delays the tariff increase or if there is one, a short one
4. China will meet large sum of US demand in regards to intellectual property rights
5. US China signs the treaty before end of 1H2019
Trump election next year
Xi Jinping also 70 years celebration on its government.
The Bank of Korea is worried about inflation being so low, talking about a possible cut in interest rates. This seems like something investors would welcome. What's the feeling out there now?
Yes. I believe Korea needs much more aggressive government policy to boost the economy.
Fiscal policy of 7 trillion won is not enough
Also rate cut is necessary.
If such move is made I expect Korean equity market will move up.
However, for the time being option maturity is making the market to correct.
Overall investment need to rise
Government spending need to rise as well
Market cheap on valuation, but still economic growth concerns remain high.
All about the momentum.
That's where we'll leave it today, Mr. Yoo. Thanks so much for your insights today. We appreciate it.
It's time now for a look at the market action here in Korea and around the world, and for that we're joined by Mr. Daniel Yoo, global strategist at Kiwoom Securities.
Mr. Yoo, thanks for coming on today.
You're welcome.
Let's start with Wall Street. Another session of pretty big losses there overnight, again on the U.S.-China trade tensions. Take us through the action, not only on Wall Street, but here in Asia too.
Global market continues to show volatility because of US-China trade dispute has not shown any answers yet.
Vice Minister Huh and Chinese negotiators are meeting in US to discuss the terms once again. Market will wait until any concrete results are released by the end of the week.
Chinese market continues to fall. Today another 1.2% decline.
Korean market also showed sharp drop as well. Today is option maturity date. This acted negatively to the market. Huge purchases of put option by foreign investors.
Also, weak intel results raised the concerns on semiconductor industry about the demand pickup in 2H. Therefore se show sharp drop in Korean equity market as Hynix down 4.7% and Samsung down 2.15%.
We're now just a day away from when this trade conflict is supposed to escalate. What do the markets see happening here?
Global market still quite worried about the US china trade war.
If tariff is raised, pressure on inflation will be high.
We estimate that inflation will go up by over 0.5% from current 2.% stable level.
This means no rate cut by Fed.
We expect the treaty will be signed because no country will be winner on this dispute as war never is.
Most likely scenario.
1. China delegate visit US
2. Good negotiation
3. US delays the tariff increase or if there is one, a short one
4. China will meet large sum of US demand in regards to intellectual property rights
5. US China signs the treaty before end of 1H2019
Trump election next year
Xi Jinping also 70 years celebration on its government.
The Bank of Korea is worried about inflation being so low, talking about a possible cut in interest rates. This seems like something investors would welcome. What's the feeling out there now?
Yes. I believe Korea needs much more aggressive government policy to boost the economy.
Fiscal policy of 7 trillion won is not enough
Also rate cut is necessary.
If such move is made I expect Korean equity market will move up.
However, for the time being option maturity is making the market to correct.
Overall investment need to rise
Government spending need to rise as well
Market cheap on valuation, but still economic growth concerns remain high.
All about the momentum.
That's where we'll leave it today, Mr. Yoo. Thanks so much for your insights today. We appreciate it.