[In-depth] Global Market Wrap-up _ 062019
- 5 years ago
증시 대담
It's time now for an in-depth look at the global markets.
And for that, I'm joined on the line by Mr. Daniel Yoo, Global Strategist at Kiwoom Securities.
Mr. Yoo, thanks for coming on today.
You're welcome.
Mr. Yoo... the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady for now, but it has left the door open to future cuts, leading to Wall Street inching up slightly. How did local and foreign markets fare?
If you look at yesterday's U.S. market trend, it was mixed until FOMC minutes were released. Trump and Xi meeting at the G20 summit has increased positive sentiment for the U.S. market, but right before the FOMC meeting, market corrected to negative territory, but with the news that FOMC kept the interest rate on hold, but indicated that it will lower the interest rate by around 50 basis points in the 2nd half of 2019 has cheered the investors.
Chinese market showed a sharp rise again after yesterday's 0.96%. Today another 2%...
KOSPI however, remained flat while Kosdaq rose 1%,
Mr. Yoo.... what do you think are the reasons for the Fed's decision to freeze rates?
First of all, The U.S. China trade war is putting huge pressure on global growth.
Second, inflation numbers look weak. Inflation 1.8%, Core inflation 1.8%, PCE also only 1.6% rise, and PPI rose only 1.8% as well. Subdued inflation means Fed has room to lower interest rate.
Also, economic activity of PMI numbers, Housing price all seem to indicate that GDP growth rate of 3.2% in 1Q, will fall to at least mid 2% level.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says many Fed officials believe the case for easing monetary policy has strengthened amid uncertainty over trade and slowing global growth. Is this a sign of a future rate cut? If so, when do you think it will come and by how much?
Yes.
In light of increased uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, we now emphasize that the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its 2 percent objective.
In the weeks since our last meeting, the crosscurrents have reemerged. Growth indicators from around the world have disappointed on net, raising concerns about the strength of the global economy. Apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty, and our contacts in business and agriculture report heightened concerns over trade developments.
These concerns may have contributed to the drop in business confidence in some recent surveys and may be starting to show through to incoming data. Risk sentiment in financial markets has deteriorated as well. Against this backdrop, inflation remains muted.
Many FOMC participants now see that the case for somewhat more accommodative policy has
strengthened.
I expect 0.25% cut in July 31, then another cut towards the end of this year.
This time it would be similar or less then 1998 3 times cut in short period of time.
Alright, Mr. Yoo. That's where we'
It's time now for an in-depth look at the global markets.
And for that, I'm joined on the line by Mr. Daniel Yoo, Global Strategist at Kiwoom Securities.
Mr. Yoo, thanks for coming on today.
You're welcome.
Mr. Yoo... the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady for now, but it has left the door open to future cuts, leading to Wall Street inching up slightly. How did local and foreign markets fare?
If you look at yesterday's U.S. market trend, it was mixed until FOMC minutes were released. Trump and Xi meeting at the G20 summit has increased positive sentiment for the U.S. market, but right before the FOMC meeting, market corrected to negative territory, but with the news that FOMC kept the interest rate on hold, but indicated that it will lower the interest rate by around 50 basis points in the 2nd half of 2019 has cheered the investors.
Chinese market showed a sharp rise again after yesterday's 0.96%. Today another 2%...
KOSPI however, remained flat while Kosdaq rose 1%,
Mr. Yoo.... what do you think are the reasons for the Fed's decision to freeze rates?
First of all, The U.S. China trade war is putting huge pressure on global growth.
Second, inflation numbers look weak. Inflation 1.8%, Core inflation 1.8%, PCE also only 1.6% rise, and PPI rose only 1.8% as well. Subdued inflation means Fed has room to lower interest rate.
Also, economic activity of PMI numbers, Housing price all seem to indicate that GDP growth rate of 3.2% in 1Q, will fall to at least mid 2% level.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says many Fed officials believe the case for easing monetary policy has strengthened amid uncertainty over trade and slowing global growth. Is this a sign of a future rate cut? If so, when do you think it will come and by how much?
Yes.
In light of increased uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, we now emphasize that the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its 2 percent objective.
In the weeks since our last meeting, the crosscurrents have reemerged. Growth indicators from around the world have disappointed on net, raising concerns about the strength of the global economy. Apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty, and our contacts in business and agriculture report heightened concerns over trade developments.
These concerns may have contributed to the drop in business confidence in some recent surveys and may be starting to show through to incoming data. Risk sentiment in financial markets has deteriorated as well. Against this backdrop, inflation remains muted.
Many FOMC participants now see that the case for somewhat more accommodative policy has
strengthened.
I expect 0.25% cut in July 31, then another cut towards the end of this year.
This time it would be similar or less then 1998 3 times cut in short period of time.
Alright, Mr. Yoo. That's where we'