Experts don't think Kim Jong-un's New Year's speech will provide breakthrough on denuclearization talks
- 5 years ago
The North Korean leader's friendly letter to President Moon Jae-in has stirred up even more anticipation for Kim Jong-un's annual New Year's speech.
His comments on New Year's Day could set the tone for North Korean diplomacy in 2019,... so there's a lot riding on it.
Our Lee Ji-won sat down with some experts for their thoughts on what Kim will say.
The series of unexpected diplomatic events in 2018 started with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's New Year's speech,... in which he said he would be willing to have North Korean athletes compete in the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
This is why many are closely watching the leader's speech for 2019 -- to see if it might contain something to end the stalemate in talks between the North and the U.S.
But many experts doubt Kim's speech will provide a breakthrough.
"I don't think there will be anything new or surprising in the speech. If you look at the North's recent speeches, including the one at the UN General Assembly in September, North Korea has been reiterating why the regime had to develop and hold onto nuclear weapons -- because of threats from the U.S. I don't think it will go far beyond that."
Some say Kim might use strong rhetoric to threaten the U.S. that the denuclearization talks could fall apart unless Washington takes measures corresponding to the steps the regime has taken, including the shutdown of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. But many experts don't think Kim will go that far.
"Kim wouldn't want to risk the current momentum for dialogue. I think Kim will praise President Donald Trump's determination and what an achievement their summit was. But he will also pressure the U.S. to implement the Singapore Joint Declaration, and urge Washington to take steps as well, which could include the lifting of sanctions or declaring an end to the Korean War."
The experts agreed that the ongoing talks with the U.S. are not likely take up a huge portion of Kim's speech, and predicted that it will largely cover inter-Korean ties.
They said exchanges with the South were a big development for the North this year, and so the leader will emphasize that while pushing to further reduce military threats.
Also, 2019 is the 4th year of the North's five-year plan for its economy, so experts say Kim will push its people and officials to do their best to boost the economy.
Lee Ji-won, Arirang News.
His comments on New Year's Day could set the tone for North Korean diplomacy in 2019,... so there's a lot riding on it.
Our Lee Ji-won sat down with some experts for their thoughts on what Kim will say.
The series of unexpected diplomatic events in 2018 started with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's New Year's speech,... in which he said he would be willing to have North Korean athletes compete in the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
This is why many are closely watching the leader's speech for 2019 -- to see if it might contain something to end the stalemate in talks between the North and the U.S.
But many experts doubt Kim's speech will provide a breakthrough.
"I don't think there will be anything new or surprising in the speech. If you look at the North's recent speeches, including the one at the UN General Assembly in September, North Korea has been reiterating why the regime had to develop and hold onto nuclear weapons -- because of threats from the U.S. I don't think it will go far beyond that."
Some say Kim might use strong rhetoric to threaten the U.S. that the denuclearization talks could fall apart unless Washington takes measures corresponding to the steps the regime has taken, including the shutdown of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. But many experts don't think Kim will go that far.
"Kim wouldn't want to risk the current momentum for dialogue. I think Kim will praise President Donald Trump's determination and what an achievement their summit was. But he will also pressure the U.S. to implement the Singapore Joint Declaration, and urge Washington to take steps as well, which could include the lifting of sanctions or declaring an end to the Korean War."
The experts agreed that the ongoing talks with the U.S. are not likely take up a huge portion of Kim's speech, and predicted that it will largely cover inter-Korean ties.
They said exchanges with the South were a big development for the North this year, and so the leader will emphasize that while pushing to further reduce military threats.
Also, 2019 is the 4th year of the North's five-year plan for its economy, so experts say Kim will push its people and officials to do their best to boost the economy.
Lee Ji-won, Arirang News.