India's Underestimated COVID Death Toll Will Get Worse As Disease Spreads in Rural Areas

In an interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Prof. Anand Krishnan said that it was wrong of the government to try and draw comfort form India’s low mortality. First, as he pointed out, it’s not as medicine low as the government claims. Second, all our neighboring countries have lower mortality rates as do others further afield like Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia and, of course, practically the whole of sub-Saharan Africa with the possible exception of South Africa.
Prof. Krishnan told The Wire there are several reasons why India’s official COVID death toll is an underestimation. First, the country’s mortality surveillance system is weak. Only 86% of deaths are registered but in some very populous states, the percentage is even lower. For instance, in UP its 61%, in Jharkhand 55%, in Bihar 35%. Second, only 22% of deaths are certified by a doctor and, again, in several states, the percentage is a lot lower. In Madhya Pradesh, it’s 7.4%, UP 5%, Jharkhand 2.6%, and in Bihar 2.4%. So in these states over 90% of deaths do not have a doctor certifying the cause of death.