How U.S. Intelligence Agencies Underestimated North Korea
- 6 years ago
How U.S. Intelligence Agencies Underestimated North Korea
6, 2018
WASHINGTON — At the start of Donald Trump’s presidency, American intelligence agencies told the new administration
that while North Korea had built the bomb, there was still ample time — upward of four years — to slow or stop its development of a missile capable of hitting an American city with a nuclear warhead.
At a speed that caught American intelligence officials off guard, Mr. Kim rolled out new missile technology — based on a decades-old Soviet engine design, apparently developed in a parallel program — and in quick succession demonstrated ranges
that could reach Guam, then the West Coast, then Washington.
And the shakiness of intelligence on North Korea — even on fundamental questions like how many
nuclear weapons Mr. Kim possesses — casts a shadow over Mr. Trump’s options going forward.
Ostensibly, North Korea suspended its nuclear weapons program in 1994 after a tense standoff with the United States
that brought the two countries closer than ever — until recent months — to resuming the Korean War.
He understands human nature and understands he will never have perfect intelligence about capabilities
and intentions." The North’s rapid progress raises a number of awkward questions: Did the American sabotage effort, for example, prompt Mr. Kim to scrap an ailing missile program for a new generation of more capable rocket engines?
28 Aug. 29 Sep. 15 Nov. 28 2,000 miles 4,000 6,000 8,000 JAN. 6, 2018
Four years later, when the United States was mired in the first year of the Iraq war, the council refined its prediction, saying
a "crisis over North Korea is likely to come to a head sometime over the next 15 years," that is, no later than 2019.
6, 2018
WASHINGTON — At the start of Donald Trump’s presidency, American intelligence agencies told the new administration
that while North Korea had built the bomb, there was still ample time — upward of four years — to slow or stop its development of a missile capable of hitting an American city with a nuclear warhead.
At a speed that caught American intelligence officials off guard, Mr. Kim rolled out new missile technology — based on a decades-old Soviet engine design, apparently developed in a parallel program — and in quick succession demonstrated ranges
that could reach Guam, then the West Coast, then Washington.
And the shakiness of intelligence on North Korea — even on fundamental questions like how many
nuclear weapons Mr. Kim possesses — casts a shadow over Mr. Trump’s options going forward.
Ostensibly, North Korea suspended its nuclear weapons program in 1994 after a tense standoff with the United States
that brought the two countries closer than ever — until recent months — to resuming the Korean War.
He understands human nature and understands he will never have perfect intelligence about capabilities
and intentions." The North’s rapid progress raises a number of awkward questions: Did the American sabotage effort, for example, prompt Mr. Kim to scrap an ailing missile program for a new generation of more capable rocket engines?
28 Aug. 29 Sep. 15 Nov. 28 2,000 miles 4,000 6,000 8,000 JAN. 6, 2018
Four years later, when the United States was mired in the first year of the Iraq war, the council refined its prediction, saying
a "crisis over North Korea is likely to come to a head sometime over the next 15 years," that is, no later than 2019.