• 3 months ago


#Nifty, #Sensex trade lower as private bank stocks drag. #NDTVProfitMarkets


Niraj Shah and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive

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00:17:41Our sedimentary basin is approximately
00:17:47nestled with approximately 651.8 million metric tons of crude oil
00:17:54and 1,138.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas.
00:18:02And this is where we come to our failings.
00:18:05Only 10% of this sedimentary basin is currently under exploration today.
00:18:11After the award of the blocks under the forthcoming OALP rounds,
00:18:15it will increase to 16% by end 2024.
00:18:20While this is good progress, 6% in one go, it is not enough.
00:18:25I wish to use this opportunity to lay down the gauntlet,
00:18:29including my friends at the DGH, to step up.
00:18:33The focus of our exploratory endeavors must pivot towards discovering yet-to-find resources.
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00:21:46Welcome back. Thanks for staying tuned with us
00:21:48on India Market Close here on NDTV Profit.
00:21:51You know, one stock that's been in focus
00:21:53over the last couple of weeks,
00:21:55continuous news flow trickling through,
00:21:58we had Yes Bank.
00:22:00Now you're talking about, one, a rating upgrade, of course,
00:22:04two, a possible divestiture from SBI's point of view
00:22:08as well as a new promoter, likely,
00:22:11from Yes Bank's perspective.
00:22:13Of course, as of now, it seems that
00:22:16most of those so-called,
00:22:21at least what Yes Bank is calling rumours,
00:22:24is not found to be confirmed yet.
00:22:27So still awaiting that promoter switch,
00:22:30if at all that were to happen.
00:22:32But moreover, just the rating upgrade
00:22:34also keeping the stock abuzz, 4% higher.
00:22:37Kush, your views with regard to Yes Bank on charts now,
00:22:41looking very interesting because
00:22:43the kind of run-up that it's seen has been very strong.
00:22:48True, Harsh, but so's the fall.
00:22:51These stocks are pretty volatile.
00:22:53One could actually just put it in
00:22:55the Vodafone category as well,
00:22:57at least in terms of the retail participant interest,
00:23:01if not anything else.
00:23:03So we've seen a fair degree of sharp moves
00:23:06on this stock.
00:23:08While we've seen some good days,
00:23:11the following moves have really been missing.
00:23:14Also, there is a trend line resistance
00:23:16close to the 27 mark that I'm witnessing.
00:23:18So from my perspective,
00:23:20for an existing position if someone's got,
00:23:22you can continue to hold with a stop-loss
00:23:24of about 23, 50, 24 kind of levels.
00:23:27But for a fresh entry, I would suggest hold up.
00:23:30Once it sustainably closes above the 28 level
00:23:33is when you could consider.
00:23:36Existing positions can be held,
00:23:37no new entries suggested.
00:23:39And it's a fairly volatile counter,
00:23:41as I said at the beginning.
00:23:42So it's not for the faint-hearted.
00:23:46Well, the other stock in focus is Raymond,
00:23:48which has witnessed wild swings
00:23:49post the lifestyle demerger.
00:23:52The stock was, well,
00:23:56at various degrees of being in despair
00:23:59to being in triumph as well.
00:24:01Anushi joins in with more details
00:24:02of what this entails for a Raymond shareholder.
00:24:05Anushi.
00:24:06Hey Neeraj, you've very correctly put it
00:24:07that it was indeed in wild swings today.
00:24:10So we did see Raymond being locked in
00:24:12a lower circuit in the earlier part of the day,
00:24:15while now after that it has recovered
00:24:17and is locked in an upper circuit
00:24:19at a price of about 2001.
00:24:21Now this is happening after the company turned ex-date
00:24:24for a demerger of its lifestyle arm,
00:24:26which is Raymond Lifestyle.
00:24:27I'll just go quickly to the swap ratio
00:24:29of the lifestyle arm.
00:24:30So four shares of Raymond Lifestyle
00:24:31will be given for every five shares
00:24:33in the Raymond company.
00:24:34And this lifestyle business is expected
00:24:36to be listed in the next two months itself.
00:24:39So focus remains there.
00:24:40I'll also talk about the valuation
00:24:42that is expected for Raymond Lifestyle.
00:24:44So based on the share price adjustment
00:24:46we saw today in the pre-open,
00:24:48it pegs a valuation,
00:24:49pegs a price of about 1,202.65 per share,
00:24:53while its total value then comes up
00:24:55to about 6,400 crore.
00:24:58So if you go to the FY24 breakup of the company,
00:25:01this was the biggest contributor
00:25:03of the Raymond business.
00:25:04It contributed to about 68% of the revenue,
00:25:07while engineering business and real estate
00:25:09comprise of 15% and 17% respectively.
00:25:12But that is not the only demerger
00:25:14that we have incurred.
00:25:15So right now Raymond consists
00:25:17of the real estate business
00:25:18and their engineering business.
00:25:20But real estate is another business
00:25:22wherein the demerger is expected sooner.
00:25:25So here the board has approved demerger
00:25:27for Raymond Realty as well.
00:25:29So for the same,
00:25:30we'll see one share of Raymond Realty
00:25:31to be given for every share of Raymond Limited held.
00:25:34So post demerger,
00:25:35we'll be looking at three entities.
00:25:36One is as listed,
00:25:38Lifestyle Business,
00:25:39Real Estate,
00:25:40along with this Raymond Limited,
00:25:41which will now comprise of the engineering business
00:25:43and the JV,
00:25:44which they have with the denim business.
00:25:46Onto the management guidance for this company,
00:25:49if you have to look at,
00:25:50so for the Lifestyle Business,
00:25:51which will come in next two months,
00:25:53they have pegged a 12% to 13%
00:25:55of revenue growth going forward.
00:25:56But EBITDA margins are expected
00:25:58to pick up from the 15% level
00:26:00and scale to about 18% going forward.
00:26:03Now what remains on the focus for the business
00:26:05is their suit business,
00:26:06wherein they're putting in about 200 crores
00:26:09and going to expand it further.
00:26:11So this is the whole scenario
00:26:12that we are looking at Raymond,
00:26:13why it is going through these wild swings
00:26:15and what we can expect in future for the same.
00:26:19Okay.
00:26:20Well, wild swings,
00:26:21difficult to give a technical perspective,
00:26:23but Anushi, while you are with us,
00:26:24so I want to ask our guests about Raymond really,
00:26:26frankly pointless,
00:26:27but just keep in mind
00:26:28and for the various reasons that we spoke about,
00:26:30Raymond has been active,
00:26:32but there are some more stocks
00:26:33which are also active in trade today, Anushi.
00:26:35What else is on your list?
00:26:37So, right Neeraj,
00:26:38I've picked stocks based on their order wins today
00:26:40and how they're buzzing in trade.
00:26:41I'll start off with the biggest one first,
00:26:43which is HPL Electric.
00:26:45It's about 20% up in trade today.
00:26:47Now this was after the company received a letter of award
00:26:49for about 2,100 crore.
00:26:51And this order is from their regular leading
00:26:54consumers.
00:26:55And this is for the supply of smart meters
00:26:57in the normal course of business that they're expecting.
00:26:59Now this is a fairly large order
00:27:01if you have to consider its order book
00:27:03that stood at about 2,000 crore in May 24.
00:27:05So we are almost seeing this doubling down
00:27:08with just one order itself.
00:27:09If you look at the market cap of the company,
00:27:11that's about 3,300 crore.
00:27:13So this shows the kind of significant order win
00:27:15that the company has received.
00:27:17Now moving on to Aluvalia Contracts,
00:27:19they've received an order of about 838 crore.
00:27:22This is for the construction of new terminal buildings
00:27:24and some other related works.
00:27:26And again, this is also for the development
00:27:28of Lal Bahadur International Airport in Varanasi.
00:27:30Again, the execution timeline for this is for three years.
00:27:34And if you look at the order book size of the company,
00:27:36that currently as of March 24,
00:27:39it stood at about 11,000 crore.
00:27:41The company also won another order of 572 crore
00:27:45earlier this month.
00:27:47And if you look at its FY24 revenue,
00:27:50that is about 3,850 crore.
00:27:52The last one on the list is Kalpataru Projects,
00:27:54wherein they've received a 2,995 crore,
00:27:57almost a 3,000 crore of an order.
00:27:59This is for various of their segments,
00:28:01which includes the transmission distribution business,
00:28:03EPC order, as well as the building and factory segment
00:28:06in India.
00:28:08Now the order intake with this new order in place
00:28:10comes to about 6,178 crore.
00:28:13So if we go back to FY24 period and compare it,
00:28:16the total order book that they had reported
00:28:19in FY24 was about 58,000 crore,
00:28:22which was already at a 27% growth,
00:28:24and it secured orders up to 30,000 crores in FY24.
00:28:28So some strong order wins on cards,
00:28:30and that is why we are seeing the stocks reacting
00:28:32in trade today.
00:28:33All right. Thanks for that, Anushi.
00:28:35Thanks for staying with us through all of that.
00:28:37But let me quickly take it across to Rajesh this time around.
00:28:41Rajesh, you know, plenty of stocks to talk about,
00:28:45actually, on the back of order wins at least.
00:28:47Plenty of action happening,
00:28:49even though we've just about started earnings
00:28:52or we're just about ready to kickstart earnings today
00:28:55if TCS is the benchmark.
00:28:58Let me first start with Aluvalia contracts.
00:29:01You know, 5% higher.
00:29:02We've seen some of these infrastocks do very well.
00:29:06What's the sense now?
00:29:07Aluvalia hasn't moved in comparison
00:29:10to some of the other infrastocks,
00:29:11but give us your views with regard to charts on this one.
00:29:16So, Harsh, charts are very strong.
00:29:19Stock is in uptrend across all time frame.
00:29:21The way stock is moving on monthly
00:29:23as well as on the weekly chart,
00:29:24that clearly shows that, you know,
00:29:26whatever minor dips which we are getting in the stocks
00:29:29are attracting the buying interest in the decline.
00:29:32So I think buy-on-dip should be your strategy in this stock.
00:29:36On the downside, the major support area is based
00:29:38at around 1370, 1360 zone.
00:29:41That's the immediate and important support area
00:29:44for near-term to short-term perspective.
00:29:46So until the stock not slips due to 1360 level,
00:29:49I think one should remain on the long side of trade.
00:29:52On the high side, since last 3-4 trading session,
00:29:56the stock is now penetrating to its previous swing high of 1540.
00:30:00That's the important level to watch for
00:30:02on the near-term perspective.
00:30:04Once the stock manages to cross above 1540,
00:30:07this really can extend to 1650 to 1700 also.
00:30:11So I think one should hold on their long position.
00:30:15Even at the current market price also,
00:30:17one can deploy some of their short-term investment
00:30:21with stop-loss of 1440,
00:30:23upside target 1600 to 1650.
00:30:27All right.
00:30:28Kush, you know, with regard to the other one, RVNL,
00:30:32now this one, 5000 crore of market cap gained
00:30:36over 150 crore rupee order.
00:30:39Talk to us about this one on charts.
00:30:41What are technicals really indicating?
00:30:43Fundamentals clearly do not seem to be aligned
00:30:46with at least the order win that has come in today.
00:30:50Harsh, you know, one of those times
00:30:52where the technicals and the fundamentals sort of, you know, marry.
00:30:55Overbought territories for a while now, you know,
00:30:58have been there but, you know, still gaining traction.
00:31:01This is not, you know, a stock
00:31:03where you'd want to consider a fresh entry
00:31:05no matter how high it goes.
00:31:06As I said, you know, for me,
00:31:07some of these names have gone into a category
00:31:09where you're quite okay perhaps sitting out
00:31:11and, you know, getting that FOMO feeling
00:31:13rather than entering and perhaps seeing, you know,
00:31:15some of these stocks down 10-15%,
00:31:17if not now, maybe, you know, a month, two months from now.
00:31:20So overbought territories for sure.
00:31:22I've maintained that view for the last, you know, week,
00:31:24perhaps a little more.
00:31:26As far as the levels go for, you know,
00:31:28someone who's got an existing position
00:31:30and still riding these,
00:31:31I think you'd be better off placing your, you know,
00:31:34tight trailing stop losses at 585 and 590 kind of zones.
00:31:37So continue to ride this momentum
00:31:39but fresh entry, not at the moment.
00:31:42Got it.
00:31:43And would you have a view on HPL Electric
00:31:46because that's 3,500 odd crore market cap
00:31:50but again, trading at some slightly higher
00:31:53elevated valuations.
00:31:54Kush, views on HPL Electric, if any?
00:31:58So, Harsh, I must say, you know,
00:32:00a very interesting find, you know,
00:32:01the stock's not been on, you know,
00:32:03a lot of traders' or investors' radar for a while.
00:32:06Not even my radar, to be completely honest.
00:32:08But the kind of moves that I've seen on this one,
00:32:10very encouraging, you know,
00:32:11at least from the mid-March kind of, you know, time zones,
00:32:15the stock had a very steady up run,
00:32:17was forming a base for a big breakout,
00:32:19and, you know, that we've seen today.
00:32:21The stock's locked in upper circuit,
00:32:22so you won't be able to get, you know,
00:32:25too much of quantity, even if you tried.
00:32:27But despite the kind of sharp up move
00:32:29that we've seen today,
00:32:30there's still some room left on the upside,
00:32:33you know, across time frames,
00:32:34the stock's not, you know,
00:32:35hit the overbought territory.
00:32:37So while the valuations, as you say,
00:32:38might be a little stretched,
00:32:39on the technicals, I think there is room
00:32:41for at least another, you know,
00:32:438% to 10%, perhaps a little more as well.
00:32:45So tomorrow, if you do get stock,
00:32:46if you do get this stock, you know,
00:32:48around those slatish levels as today,
00:32:50by that I mean, you know,
00:32:51the closing levels as today,
00:32:52then you should perhaps consider,
00:32:54you know, entering into these.
00:32:55Your stop loss here would come in at 535 levels,
00:32:58as I said,
00:32:59the target would be about 10% higher from there.
00:33:01All right.
00:33:0210% from your three and a half bag already
00:33:04over the last 12 months.
00:33:05But, you know,
00:33:06it's time to slip into another short break.
00:33:08As we do that,
00:33:09here's some market opinion,
00:33:11even with consumer discretionary trends
00:33:14facing pressure,
00:33:15MK Investment Manager Manish Santhalia
00:33:17remains bullish on premium two-wheeler segment.
00:33:21That's the segment he's bullish on.
00:33:22Here's what he had to say.
00:33:23Listen in.
00:33:25More bullish on two-wheelers
00:33:27and within the two-wheelers,
00:33:29the premium segment of the motorcycle,
00:33:31which is 125 plus or 150 plus
00:33:34going up to 350, 400cc.
00:33:37There, I think the premiumization trend,
00:33:39if you were to look at from a medium-term perspective,
00:33:42looks very, very sound.
00:33:44And that opportunity is going to play out,
00:33:47you know,
00:33:48and you have the likely players,
00:33:49two or three of them.
00:33:51You know,
00:33:53you have international players like Harley
00:33:55and, you know,
00:33:56Triumph also come through.
00:33:58Obviously,
00:33:59looking at the premium end of the motorcycle,
00:34:01starting to look very good
00:34:03as far as the opportunity side is concerned
00:34:05in terms of growth.
00:34:07I was just doing some numbers.
00:34:09You know,
00:34:10India has some 57 sectors.
00:34:13And, you know,
00:34:15if you take the mean valuation
00:34:17of each of these 57 sectors,
00:34:21I mean,
00:34:22hardly 10% of five or six sectors
00:34:25would be at some comfortable valuation zone
00:34:30compared to the last 10 years' mean valuation.
00:34:34The rest 50 sectors
00:34:36would be trading at higher than 10-year average mean valuation.
00:34:40So that is the state of things as we speak.
00:34:45And SIP flows,
00:34:47which is basically a smart institutional money,
00:34:50keeps piling on 20,000 odd crores SIP flows.
00:34:54I mean,
00:34:55as long as that continues,
00:34:57you've got to pick and choose
00:34:59between the broader markets.
00:35:01India has a long runway to go from here.
00:35:05Obviously,
00:35:06the medium-term outlook is definitely bullish
00:35:09and even the long-term outlook.
00:35:11But problems in individual sectors will remain.
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00:37:19Welcome back. You're watching India Market Close on NDTV Profit.
00:37:22We've Agam standing by, as always.
00:37:24It's 3 p.m.
00:37:25He is going to break down the F&O Qs for us today.
00:37:28Agam, what's the F&O data indicating?
00:37:30Well, Varsh, it's been a strange sort of a day
00:37:34Well, of course, not without a fair share of choppiness, because at one point of time
00:37:38we saw the Nifty test around the 24,200 and since then we have seen a recovery.
00:37:44It does seem like we're going to likely close around the 24,300 mark, where the open interest
00:37:50hasn't changed as much for the Bank Nifty as well.
00:37:53You know, we've seen, well, flattish moments and while that has been choppy, it's been
00:37:58a relatively range bound.
00:38:00Of course, 2.5% added in open interest.
00:38:03As we move into the options market and take a look at there, here, of course, and perhaps
00:38:09on expected lines, we're looking at a lot of traction around 24,200, 24,300 in terms
00:38:15of calls and puts, even as we talk about the stocks.
00:38:20And again, it's a mixed market.
00:38:22So when it comes to stocks, we are looking at longs in Infosys, Britannia.
00:38:26Infosys actually is just marginally in the green, remember, but we will see a reaction
00:38:31not just on TCS, but also on Infosys tomorrow as we see the earnings from TCS come through.
00:38:37And among stocks which are seeing unwinding, actually a lot of short covering coming on.
00:38:41So among them, we have India Cement, which actually stands out as well as Baranapur Chini.
00:38:46India Cement is a wait and watch because it may just come out of the F&O band.
00:38:49So that's something to remember.
00:38:52India Mart and Interglobe Aviation among others, which are seeing a power of short covering.
00:38:56In general, as far as the markets are concerned, fairly evenly poised between advances and
00:39:00declines.
00:39:02It's been another day of consolidation, I could say that.
00:39:05And it's again a wait and watch as to where the direction of the industries go.
00:39:09But today was a fairly ordinary expiration for the weekly contracts.
00:39:14All right.
00:39:16Thank you, Agam, for that.
00:39:18Let me also welcome on board Devyan Choksi, Managing Director at DR Choksi Investment
00:39:23Managers on fundamentals.
00:39:26Joining us as well.
00:39:27Welcome, sir.
00:39:29Mr. Choksi, I want to try and understand, you know, some of these names, something like
00:39:34an HPL Electric, something like, you know, we've had a slew of order wins, which have
00:39:42trickled through Alu-Alya contracts, RVNL and the like.
00:39:47Any names that interest you within the infraspace, budget play, anything that interests you?
00:39:53Yeah, good afternoon.
00:39:55Certainly, I think the government being the largest spender today, they are putting across
00:40:02significantly large sum of money for the infrastructure.
00:40:06And the companies which are in the power generation and in power distribution space, along with
00:40:11I think the players who are in the capital goods and the ancillary space, they are the
00:40:18ones who are basically going to get the major amount of benefits out of the entire offloading
00:40:26of the new contracts, which are coming from respective corporations.
00:40:30In my viewpoint, I think this is going to be absolutely a good roadmap going forward
00:40:35next three, five, 10 years, maybe in some other cases.
00:40:39However, I think the major issue today in the market is not the business.
00:40:44The business is understood that most of the companies are currently good size of business.
00:40:49The challenge is in execution, and that execution risk probably the market is not factoring
00:40:54to.
00:40:55In my understanding, some of the mid-size and small-size companies are most vulnerable
00:40:59to the execution risk, because even though they may have larger business to talk about,
00:41:04whether do they have sufficient amount of bandwidth to execute this particular business
00:41:08in a given period of time, remains I think a challenging task and proposition for most
00:41:13of the investors who are waiting outside and altering it.
00:41:16So I think that is a challenge that I see.
00:41:18I'm not seeing business as a challenge.
00:41:20I believe that I think that condition will have to play out.
00:41:23Maybe I think that if absolutely very rich valuations are there in the marketplace, they
00:41:29are subject to, I think, a significant amount of execution risk that is probably the rationale.
00:41:36Devin, good afternoon.
00:41:40Both our experts are very constructive on the energy pocket, different forms, but constructive
00:41:46on energy.
00:41:47I would love to understand from you fundamentally, are you constructive with how energy stocks
00:41:52are shaping up currently?
00:41:53Are you upbeat on upstream oil, for example?
00:41:56Jnani Raj, I think good afternoon.
00:41:59Well, I guess I think one will have to remain constructive about this particular subject
00:42:04because in each of the areas, I think where probably we need conventional energy or we
00:42:09need renewable energy, I believe that I think the demand that the country is going to have,
00:42:15given the kind of program that we are executing currently, both on the infrastructure side
00:42:19as well as on the industry side, and at the same time, I think some of the larger initiatives
00:42:24like data center initiatives that we are taking up, I believe that I think we are going to
00:42:29be consuming significantly large amount of energy that is undoubtedly understood now.
00:42:35The challenge I think that we are probably seeing is in the area of execution, like I
00:42:39was mentioning a little earlier as well, that I think in most of the cases, probably I think
00:42:44the order books are released, the projects are going to get executed, but they are going
00:42:49to take time.
00:42:50They are not going to get executed just in one quarter or two quarters.
00:42:53They are long drawn projects, I think it should take time.
00:42:56That's where probably I think I'm slightly more mindful about.
00:42:58I'm not at all doubting the possibility and prospects of the generating companies, not
00:43:03doubting even the prospects of distribution companies, not doubting the prospects of renewable
00:43:08companies, even for that matter, green hydrogen business.
00:43:11I believe that I think each of these areas will have significantly large amount of opportunity
00:43:15going forward, including in the oil and gas business, I think where the opportunity size
00:43:20is going to be steady and higher.
00:43:22But the fact is that execution, execution, suppose if you are giving very large premium
00:43:26to individual companies in the marketplace, and if execution remains at a slower pace,
00:43:32probably I think these premiums will have to come for adjustment or re-rating at some
00:43:36point of time.
00:43:37That's the part or the portion that one will have to be mindful about when they operate
00:43:41in the market.
00:43:43Okay, well, certainly, it's a pocket that to watch out for.
00:43:49Now a full tilt towards IT, I will take both the technical, fundamental and the derivative
00:43:53view because TCS coming up with the numbers very, very shortly, Rucha Johnson to tell
00:44:00us what should be anticipated.
00:44:02Rucha, good afternoon.
00:44:03Good afternoon, Neeraj.
00:44:04TCS will report its numbers post 3.30 today.
00:44:05And let me take you to the numbers which are expected by the state revenue is largely expected
00:44:13to be muted growth around 1.5%, but margins are expected to fall likely due to wage hikes
00:44:19that are announced by the company.
00:44:21Now a company had mentioned about achieving the 26% to 28% of the margin target in the
00:44:27near term.
00:44:28That is what we look out for.
00:44:30We'll also look out for the discretionary demand commentary, obviously, that is with
00:44:34all the IT sectors that we look out for.
00:44:36And also how are deal wins getting converted into revenue because remember, TCS had mentioned
00:44:40about deal wins getting cancelled and also paused over the last few quarters.
00:44:44Deal wins are expected to be healthy around $9 billion.
00:44:49And also talking about the BSNL deal, the ramp up of this deal and its conversion into
00:44:54revenue is also to be watched out for.
00:44:56All in all, TCS muted numbers.
00:44:59But what is important is the commentary by the management call is scheduled at seven
00:45:03o'clock today.
00:45:04Okay.
00:45:05Thanks a lot for that, Rucha.
00:45:07Keep an eye out for this.
00:45:08First, the trade perspective here.
00:45:10Now, Rajesh, I'll come to you first.
00:45:13It's always difficult to trade a stock and a big one at that ahead of its results.
00:45:17But if I were to put a gun to your head and ask you, what would your trading strategy
00:45:22be on a TCS ahead of numbers?
00:45:25Looking at the derivative set up ahead of numbers, it's going to be a range bound, looking
00:45:35at the call put concentration data.
00:45:38We have already initiated an option strategy for TCS numbers ahead of numbers.
00:45:45So here we are doing short straddle of 3950 strike and we are covering this short straddle
00:45:54by buying a strangle of 4100 call option at 34 rupees and 3800 put option at 33 rupees.
00:46:04So your breakeven for this strategy would be around 3835 on the downside and on the
00:46:10higher side, 4065 would be the higher breakeven for this strategy.
00:46:16So you have to do short straddle of 3950 strikes.
00:46:20So 101 and 81, that call input you can sell.
00:46:25Why we are initiating this four leg strategy?
00:46:28Because looking at the data set up, it's going to be range bound based on the data.
00:46:32And if we look at the major supply zone, which is placed at 4050 kind of zone.
00:46:39So I think post number also stock may remain in the range only.
00:46:44So this strategy may turn out on the profitable strategy post number if it behaves which data
00:46:52is indicating at this moment.
00:46:54Even IVs are at elevated level around 2025 is the range for the IVs.
00:46:59So that's why we are selling short straddle.
00:47:02So that would be the strategy one can initiate at this moment for TCS ahead of number.
00:47:09For those who want to take directional trade, so 4040, 4050 would be the major supply zone
00:47:15for the stock on the higher side.
00:47:17So that level is very critical on the higher side to cross.
00:47:21And on the downside, 3860, 3850 would be the major support zone on the downside.
00:47:27So to play range bound, we are initiating this strategy to play ahead of results.
00:47:35All right.
00:47:36Long one, but we take that.
00:47:38Thank you, Rajesh.
00:47:40You know, Devin, if I can ask you for your views with regard to TCS as well as IT, what's
00:47:46your sense?
00:47:47What's your expectation?
00:47:48And what would you really be looking out for orders traction, of course, but outside of
00:47:54that, is there something you're really looking out for?
00:47:57Yeah, I think importantly, the orders are flowing in and that is what is good news.
00:48:02In fact, I think yesterday, even Infosys, I ended up receiving $5 billion worth of order
00:48:06for five years.
00:48:07That's a large one.
00:48:09So that gives you a good visibility as far as the business output is concerned in the
00:48:13books.
00:48:14They need to have, I think, more such orders, definitely, for sure.
00:48:17That is how the street will get happy about.
00:48:20But the fact remains that I think what are we expecting, I think, other than the order
00:48:24working through and I think the steady growth rate of 10-12% kind of thing, what we are
00:48:29expecting out of the business of the company, a few things.
00:48:32How the companies are strategically planning their business into the computing space from
00:48:37the coding space.
00:48:38So I think that's where one, I think, narrative is what we understood from respective companies.
00:48:44Because the clients on the other side definitely are demanding more amount of computing-related
00:48:48solutions, which is important because even today, the global companies, out of the large
00:48:53part of the companies are still not on the cloud for the computing requirement.
00:48:58That is one important aspect.
00:49:00Second important aspect, I think, which I believe that the newer technologies, including
00:49:04the AI, is a requirement of the day for survival now and not for anything else.
00:49:08One on efficiency side.
00:49:09Second is, I think, on the reach to market is concerned.
00:49:13So certainly, I think, this adoption of AI is a requirement, I think, for different different
00:49:18use cases.
00:49:19And that's where, I think, some of the clients would be engaging them.
00:49:22And third last point, I think, as far as I am concerned, I would like to understand whether
00:49:26these companies would probably create a platform as a service.
00:49:30I think for the purpose of enrolling the new customers to buy their solutions on different
00:49:35use cases.
00:49:36If that happens, then possibility of, I think, repeating what 90s saw in form of coding for
00:49:41the IT companies will be seen for the computing in the coming era.
00:49:45So these are a few things, I think, which probably, I think, I am keen to look at and
00:49:49listen from the management's point of view.
00:49:52And sir, just your perspective on how rich in your view are valuations or are they looking
00:49:57reasonable at this point?
00:50:00We are not far too expensive.
00:50:02I guess, I think, they are probably reasonably valued currently, I would say.
00:50:06And if they end up giving the surprise on the positive side for the growth, then certainly,
00:50:10I think, this valuation will stay or maybe in some cases, they get related.
00:50:15All right.
00:50:16You know, we also spoke with Sandeep Agarwal of Soilo Investments on Q1 IT earnings.
00:50:22And he seems confident that this quarter will mark the beginning of the IT upgrade cycle.
00:50:27Listen into that.
00:50:29I am fully confident that this quarter will start the upgrade cycle.
00:50:34I am not even thinking of stopping of the downgrade cycle.
00:50:37I think it will start the beginning of the upgrade cycle.
00:50:40And I will tell you key reasons why.
00:50:42See in last four or five quarters, if you see, attrition has been consistently falling.
00:50:48The sub-con cost for attrition from a peak of, you know, 28-29% for even TCS, for four
00:50:55or five quarters back has now again come back to 12-13% level.
00:50:59Second, the sub-con cost which had crossed 10% even for TCS are now back to, you know,
00:51:06mid-single digit kind of numbers.
00:51:08So all these things have huge contributed to margins.
00:51:12And if your margins start going up, then what happens, the comfort on executions comes significantly
00:51:18and also it gives you more leeway to, you know, get more business.
00:51:22So I think we, in my view, the stocks have made a bottom in the last quarter from a stock
00:51:29price perspective because markets are always forward looking.
00:51:31So the discount, all the negative and positive very quickly.
00:51:34And I think this is the quarter when you will actually see upgrades led by margins.
00:51:39I don't see this sector, at least the large caps are in such a shape or the industry is
00:51:43in such a shape where you can see big upgrades in growth because growth numbers are going
00:51:48to be, you know, 8-10% for the large names.
00:51:50In some good quality mid-cap names, you can see 12-14% kind of growth, but the margins
00:51:55are the key thing.
00:51:56And I think margins will start picking up from this quarter.
00:51:58That is the way I look at the sector.
00:52:01Well, while we await TCS and market close for today, let's quickly try and go back to
00:52:07Kush.
00:52:08Kush, your view with regard to Ereda because that one is up and away in trade, blazing
00:52:12away.
00:52:13Kush, I think you're on mute.
00:52:20Yeah, I'm sorry.
00:52:21And there's no stopping it.
00:52:23Practically, you know, a vertical rise.
00:52:25And even today, if you see, you know, the move has come with some of the highest volume
00:52:31figures that it's locked in the recent past.
00:52:33So I think, you know, this move, even though overstretched, is here to stay.
00:52:37I think 300 is the next level to watch for on this one.
00:52:40If that's taken out, 315 is the level that you're looking for.
00:52:43But again, you know, puts a bit of a discomfort in terms of going fresh longs on this one.
00:52:49This two for me will remain for only those who have an existing position.
00:52:53265 is where, you know, a support zone will come in.
00:52:56So you can have a stop-loss there.
00:52:58So ride the momentum.
00:52:59If someone does want to play this momentum, despite the overstretched territory that it's
00:53:03already in, then do it with a small quantity.
00:53:06That is what my advice would be to 265 stop-loss, targets being 300 and 315.
00:53:11Okay, thank you, Kush.
00:53:14Devin, if I can come to you on this one, the stock IPO at 32 rupees a share, maybe seven,
00:53:20eight months back, currently sitting at nearly 300 rupees a piece, and listed at maybe 62,
00:53:28if I recall right, now sitting at 300 rupees.
00:53:32Is this a space which you believe is egregiously valued?
00:53:36And any other pockets where you feel valuations are just beyond your, beyond what you would
00:53:43be comfortable with?
00:53:44Sorry, which company did you mention?
00:53:45IREDA, sir.
00:53:46IREDA.
00:53:47Yeah, sure.
00:53:48I think the business model of the company, undoubtedly, I think is definitely good.
00:53:56And maybe I think the issue also coming with a reasonable price premium.
00:54:00So from that perspective, I believe that I think the company has done all the right things
00:54:04as far as going out in the public market is concerned, and leaving some value for the
00:54:08investors.
00:54:10However, when I look at the current valuation, and also look at the potential that these
00:54:14companies are offering, I find that in most of the cases, without I think, particularly
00:54:19naming a particular company, but in general, I'm talking about, in most of the cases, I
00:54:24think the companies are probably discounting the earnings two years, three years in advance.
00:54:29Now, that's an area where I think I would like to be a little bit more watchful.
00:54:33And then I think this market has a habit of reviewing companies every quarter, and on
00:54:38a quarter over quarter, when you start reviewing the company, and during this particular review
00:54:43process, if you find slippages in one or two quarters, probably this market is not very
00:54:49kind in giving you premium valuation.
00:54:51And that's what I think is a possible concern.
00:54:53Today, if you end up buying something with a premium valuation, and if the companies
00:54:58could not deliver the execution part of the business, then probably I think you are going
00:55:03to see a sharp drop in a D rating in the valuation.
00:55:07I think that's where probably, according to me, today's traders in the market are unmindful
00:55:12about this particular reality in a situation.
00:55:15That is where I think one would like to be a little bit more cautious.
00:55:18But otherwise, yes, we do like the businesses of, we like the business of RECBFC, and likely
00:55:24I think the good business models, I think, which these companies have, the valuation
00:55:28wise, if they don't scale up in a hurry, probably they are a good business bet to make, I think,
00:55:33at a reasonably low price from current levels.
00:55:36Yes, indeed.
00:55:38And now five minutes left for the markets to shut shop.
00:55:41So let's take in closing strategies as well.
00:55:42We got four ideas from our experts at the start of the show.
00:55:45I wonder if the closing strategy is slightly different.
00:55:47Kush, I'll come to you first.
00:55:48Your top closing strategy.
00:55:51Well, SJVN is looking good on the charts, unlike some of the other peers in this space,
00:55:58their stocks not really had a V-shaped kind of a run.
00:56:01Even now, if you see, there's a very clear sign of accumulation for the last five, seven
00:56:05sessions.
00:56:06So for me, SJVN remains a buy from a near-term 155, 160 are the levels to look at.
00:56:11145 is where you can place your stop-loss.
00:56:13The stock actually moved up in the last couple of minutes since we spotted it.
00:56:17But still, I think, you know, up until 160, there's a fair bit of room.
00:56:20So if someone wants to consider even this as a BTSC trade, I think SJVN will make the
00:56:25cut.
00:56:26Okay, SJVN and spiking up, by the way, some of these PSUs are having a field day today
00:56:31as well.
00:56:32Rajesh, your top closing strategy.
00:56:35I think two mid-cap stocks, one is CSE.
00:56:38That stock is now trading at all-time high trajectory.
00:56:41The way stock has formed a weekly candle, that clearly shows that, you know, here we
00:56:46can see a rally to continue.
00:56:49205 would be the next target for the stock.
00:56:52Keep a stop-loss of 186.
00:56:54The second stock that we like is Zomato.
00:56:56Again, the stock scaled to the new all-time high trajectory.
00:57:00The way stock is now holding about 200 level and whatever minor dips which we are getting
00:57:05is attracting the buying interest.
00:57:07So Zomato can continue further more upside, 226 to 228 would be the next target.
00:57:14This is for trading perspective and your stop-loss should be placed at around 240.
00:57:19Okay, okay.
00:57:22So that's a couple of names to watch out for.
00:57:25Rajesh, Kush, thank you so much for joining in today and giving us your perspectives.
00:57:30Really, really appreciate your time.
00:57:32Devyan, before we let you go, fundamentally, anything that you're watching out for ahead
00:57:36of the earning season, one business, one set of results that you're keenly watching out
00:57:40for?
00:57:41Yeah, Neeraj, I think my close eye is on, I think, the BFSI segment, particularly.
00:57:49And I think the likes of Bajaj Finance and likes of, I think, other corporate banks,
00:57:54where I believe that I think these banks have a significantly large amount of business to
00:57:59execute on one end because of the higher amount of the credit activity which is happening
00:58:05in the economy.
00:58:06And on the other hand, I think they are not so far expensive.
00:58:10So to a greater extent, they are having the upside of the re-rating possibility in these
00:58:15stocks.
00:58:16So we can really look at, I think, how markets start participating and start re-rating likes
00:58:19of Bajaj Finance, Bajaj FinSec, where the unlocking of the valuation coming through
00:58:24the housing finance business, at the same time, 30% kind of a gaggle growth in the credit
00:58:28lending is continuing, which is what market is neglecting today about.
00:58:33I think that's what I think we would like to see how exactly this gets played out.
00:58:36So yes, selectively, we look at, I think, good companies to invest into market.
00:58:41If the market price gives a comfort, we should buy it and we do buy it to the full extent.
00:58:45Okay.
00:58:46Thank you so much, sir, for that perspective.
00:58:49BFSI on the cards, Bajaj Finance, incidentally, is the top loser on the Nifty 50 today, at
00:58:56least as of now.
00:58:57But very close to close, we're up around a tenth of a percent or thereabouts.
00:59:02So we're in the green, we're closing in the green on the Nifty.
00:59:05In fact, 24350 plus is where we are currently trading at 24350, which is which is heartening
00:59:13to see.
00:59:14Also, if we can pull up the Sensex, just quickly look at the levels before we move to the Nifty
00:59:18Bank, because likely that's what's driving the positivity.
00:59:21Okay, we're very close to 80,000 on close on the Sensex.
00:59:25And yeah, there you go, quarter of a percent higher on the Nifty Bank.
00:59:30Well, we've seen some bit of swing on the Nifty Bank, almost one to one and a half percent
00:59:36swing is what we've seen today in trade on the Nifty Bank.
00:59:39And that's that's the one pocket which has likely led the recovery today.
00:59:44If we can have the intraday chart on the Nifty 50 and thereafter on the Nifty Bank to just
00:59:49try and determine that.
00:59:51And thereafter, we'll just quickly look at contributories.
00:59:54So there you go.
00:59:55That's the Nifty 50 chart we've recovered.
00:59:56We're in the green, the Nifty Bank to similar.
01:00:01There you go.
01:00:03Almost at the day's high where the Nifty Bank is concerned, except that initial spike that
01:00:09we saw at the start of the day.
01:00:10And if we can pull up the contributories as well, if we can, there you go.
01:00:16So that's where the contributories are.
01:00:20No negative contributories, especially within the Nifty Bank, nothing significant that we
01:00:24are seeing.
01:00:26ICICI, of course, but just about six points on the negative.
01:00:29Let's pull up the heat map.
01:00:30See where things are closing in at ONGC, Coal India, BPCL continue to be the top gainers
01:00:36on the Nifty 50.
01:00:37The top losers continue to be Bajaj Finance and Tata Consumer.
01:00:39Some bit of recovery in Bajaj Finance we're seeing, Divis as well among the laggards in
01:00:45trade today.
01:00:46So a mixed bag.
01:00:47Let's look at the heavyweights very quickly and ICICI, I can see quarter of a percent
01:00:51of their bouts lower.
01:00:55Reliance has closed flat and HDFC Bank also down around a fifth of a percent of their
01:00:59bouts.
01:01:00So those are some of the heavyweights.
01:01:02M&M has been in focus of late, 1% lower is where M&M has closed in at.
01:01:07If you can pull up the sectoral heat map as well, see which sectors have done well.
01:01:12PSUs in focus, Energy has done well, not surprisingly.
01:01:16FMCG too, up around a third of a percent and the Nifty Bank, that's the one that's really
01:01:21stood out for me today, up around a fifth of a percent at close.
01:01:25Nothing to complain about there.
01:01:26Nifty IT, we've got a host of earnings coming through on IT over the next week or so, up
01:01:30around a tenth of a percent.
01:01:32Top laggards, Pharma as well as Realty.
01:01:35That's where we are at.
01:01:36Auto is absolutely flat with a negative bias.
01:01:39But with that, from Neeraj, myself, everyone who puts the show together, thanks so much
01:01:42for watching.
01:15:51We are given to understand that the revenue is up about 2.2% in line with the expectations.
01:15:56We also understand that TCS has announced a dividend of 10 rupees per share.
01:16:02If our producers could just repeat what they were saying.
01:16:07Sure.
01:16:08Right.
01:16:09Mr. Mayuresh Joshi on the phone line.
01:16:12Good evening, Mr. Joshi.
01:16:13In line with the expectations, give us an overview of how you're reading this.
01:16:19Good afternoon.
01:16:20No, I think it's more or less in line with what the street was probably expecting.
01:16:28All right.
01:16:29We seem to have lost that audio connection.
01:16:31We'll go back to it in just a bit.
01:16:33But Rucha, of course, continues to be with us.
01:16:36Rucha, we were talking about the fact that it does appear at this point in time that
01:16:41revenues meet expectations.
01:16:43But the big question, Rucha, everybody would be asking is, is this finally looking up for
01:16:49the IT sector?
01:16:50We've been expecting it to move up for a while now.
01:16:53So is that the beginning, perhaps, the first result coming in today?
01:16:57Yeah, I think TCS has been kicking off and numbers coming in line might give a relief
01:17:03to the investors.
01:17:04So maybe if not a downgrade cycle, I think the earnings are likely to remain stable going
01:17:11forward.
01:17:12But we also have a perspective on the BFSI segment that the company has reported.
01:17:17The segment has registered a growth of about 1.4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
01:17:26But we also have our guest who has rejoined for the show, Mr. Mahuresh Joshi.
01:17:31If you can speak about what are your takes on the results.
01:17:35Well, I think in line with estimates and expectations, but largely we'll now all boil down what the
01:17:41management comment is, specifically in terms of the BFSI, in particular banking and insurance
01:17:48and what happens for banks in terms of recovery both of that.
01:17:57As well as TCS.
01:17:58To that extent, the management comment is extremely obvious.
01:18:04Therefore, I think what probably transpires in terms of those outlooks, specifically in
01:18:09the second half of this financial year, which might coincide in terms of the rate cut cycle
01:18:15rather than a global rate cut cycle.
01:18:17Mr. Joshi, I'm afraid that's a very poor audio connection that we have with you.
01:18:21We're just going to dial you back in a minute and try and fix that.
01:18:24So, Mr. Joshi, essentially talking about the fact that it's in line with expectations.
01:18:2910 rupee dividend also has been declared.
01:18:32Rucha, anything else that you're picking up at the moment?
01:18:34Sure, yeah.
01:18:3510 rupees dividends seem to be pretty much in line with what the company has been expecting.
01:18:41But as rightly, Mr. Mahuresh also mentioned about how BFSI is important for the company
01:18:46which contributes majority of the revenue.
01:18:49A positive growth, in fact, over here gives stability in deal wins, not getting cancelled
01:18:53idly, which was the case with TCS in the last quarter.
01:18:57And even in the third quarter, which the company had mentioned about deal cancellations and
01:19:02the demand was not, they were not sure about how the demand was getting through, talking
01:19:08about deal pauses, et cetera, not seeing green shoots.
01:19:11Well, Wipro was the only one who was seeing the green shoots, but none of the companies
01:19:15were seeing green shoots.
01:19:16But we have TCS numbers in line, margins in line.
01:19:20Of course, margin dip was already baked in the numbers due to the wage hike, but definitely
01:19:25commentary from the management is what to be watched out for, is to be watched out for
01:19:30at 7 o'clock today.
01:19:31Oh yes, absolutely.
01:19:32Net profit down 3.2%, quarter on quarter is what we are picking up as well.
01:19:38Anything that you'd like to add on that?
01:19:42Yes, so net profit, as I mentioned about the wage hike, was baked in.
01:19:47But I think this was all already baked in the numbers.
01:19:53But as I would, as an investor, look forward for what are the comments from the management
01:20:00coming by.
01:20:01But we also have our guest who is joining back, sir.
01:20:05You're talking about BFSI when we lastly got disconnected.
01:20:09Mr. Mayuresh, over to you.
01:20:12Yes, so I think that's one important aspect and domain that TCS commentary will hold key
01:20:19not just for TCS, but for the entire sector as a whole.
01:20:22Because a lot of revenue contribution comes in from the BFSI space, specifically for the
01:20:28larger players as well.
01:20:29And therefore, what happens in terms of recovery mechanism for this sector, specifically in
01:20:35the North American market, the European region as well, is going to be extremely critical.
01:20:40At the same time, retail manufacturing are also the other sub-segments or segments where
01:20:46the growth patterns and how discretionary demand, specifically from the client side,
01:20:51is expected to come back is going to be critical in terms of how the second half will get positioned.
01:20:57First half is largely a mix in terms of hit on debit margins, both in terms of a slow
01:21:05recovery that was anyway expected for all of the sectors and probably taking a toll
01:21:11in terms of margins at least as far as Q1, Q2 is concerned.
01:21:14So I think commentary across these spaces is going to be extremely critical for TCS
01:21:19in terms of support.
01:21:21Sure, sir.
01:21:22Got that.
01:21:23We also have Rahul Jain from Dollar Capital joining us who closely tracks the IT sector.
01:21:30Hi, sir.
01:21:31Welcome to the show.
01:21:32And what are your takes on the IT earnings?
01:21:34Yeah, of course.
01:21:36To begin with, from a growth perspective, it's slightly better than what we were thinking
01:21:43of.
01:21:44And that's encouraging.
01:21:46And it's also supported by a headcount addition, which is an important metric that we need
01:21:53to follow right now from a going forward perspective.
01:21:56This number per se would kind of set them well for the better than last year kind of
01:22:04a growth outlook that they shared.
01:22:06So from that perspective, we would say we are fine so far.
01:22:11But we'll see what they have to comment in terms of overall thought process.
01:22:16Mr. Jain, do you think that this perhaps is going to signal the uptick in the IT sector?
01:22:27I think it would be too early to think like that.
01:22:31I mean, we just heard a call three weeks back.
01:22:35And they were, despite suggesting a better outlook in terms of the deal that they signed
01:22:44in that quarter, they were very clear that this is not that the environment has changed
01:22:50much.
01:22:51We would be glad that things are bottoming out.
01:23:02But is it like a swift recovery, which we are going to see from here on, or could be
01:23:08too premature to think on?
01:23:10Sure, sir.
01:23:11Talking about the earnings cycle, what would be your estimates on the company?
01:23:16Is it likely downgrade in the earnings estimates that your company has for TCS?
01:23:24So far, it looks like in line to a small beat.
01:23:30So unless they talk anything meaningful negative, of course, it won't be a cut.
01:23:36But if they talk positive, there could be a slight possibility of an upgrade.
01:23:41But that's all depend upon what they have to see.
01:23:44Otherwise, it's a small growth year.
01:23:47Small, mixed commentary would not make any meaningful change to our estimates.
01:23:52Sure, sir.
01:23:53But in headcount addition, I mean, that is what is likely a positive for IT companies
01:24:00going ahead.
01:24:01How do you look at the headcount addition that has come in?
01:24:04Yeah, as I said in the beginning comment itself, I think headcount addition is a welcome data
01:24:12point to look into.
01:24:14The number in absolute basis is in line with the revenue growth.
01:24:20So it's not a great number, but yes, it's a definite direction change, which is a positive
01:24:27thought process to take on from.
01:24:30But as I said, these are such small numbers right now that unless we hear from the management
01:24:38nuances on some of these aspects, I think it would be too premature to call out the
01:24:44directional change.
01:24:46Right, sir.
01:24:47So what kind of deal wins are you expecting?
01:24:49I mean, $9 billion is what I have been hearing from the other brokerage houses.
01:24:53What are your takes on the deal wins this time?
01:24:55And do you expect deal pauses or deal cancellations as well?
01:25:01I think the deal wins have not been the concern in the previous fiscal as well.
01:25:08And we all saw that deal ramp up was a bigger worry because of the indecisiveness in the
01:25:15mind of the spender.
01:25:17So that outlook has to evolve.
01:25:20Otherwise, deal wins may continue to happen and may drive up the book-to-bill ratio, which
01:25:28has happened in the fiscal 24, which is much better for all the vendors compared to their
01:25:34five-year average.
01:25:36But that has not transitioned to a good growth year.
01:25:39So again, a feedback out there could be important, whether it's $8 billion to $10 billion range,
01:25:45which is the typical run rate.
01:25:47I think we are indifferent on that range.
01:25:51But the conversion factor, ramp-up factor, I think that is an important element.
01:25:57Sir, talking about Americas, one of the largest segments, verticals for TCS, down about 1.1%
01:26:07on a constant currency term.
01:26:09So don't you see an uptick over here?
01:26:11Even last time North America had registered a negative growth.
01:26:14So what is your take on North America as a vertical?
01:26:19I think North America, per se, is the biggest market wherein it brings in the delta.
01:26:27And the piece where they have seen challenges in the recent past has been on the BFSI vertical
01:26:35within that market, along with the tech vertical.
01:26:38So the flavor on those verticals is what will help us build the block on the geo perspective.
01:26:47Otherwise, I would always say that it's not a very macro-specific market issue that we are observing.
01:26:55I think it's more about the confidence on the spend, specifically both in terms of changing
01:27:01the technology landscape with gen-AI kind of a mindset, and also in general macro-related uncertainty,
01:27:10which is causing clients to spend lesser.
01:27:15I think those two aspects is where clients are more getting perturbed about.
01:27:22So any thought process on those lines would be more crucial than calling out a commentary
01:27:28specific to a particular region.
01:27:30I don't think that's a problem.
01:27:45Stay with us.
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