Macron's gambit of 'political instability': 'France doesn't have tradition of political coalitions'
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00:00Hi, everyone, thanks for tuning in to France 24.
00:03It's time now for our segment, Apropos, where we delve into one issue
00:07in the world headlines and take a closer look.
00:15Well, tonight, we're focusing on the results of the second round
00:18of legislative elections here in France, and it's a result
00:21that none of the polls had predicted.
00:24The left wing coalition, the New Popular Front, won the most seats
00:27in the National Assembly, followed by President Macron's centrist coalition.
00:31And then third was the far right party of Marine Le Pen, the national rally,
00:35which many had expected would come out on top.
00:38Well, earlier today, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation
00:43to Emmanuel Macron.
00:44But with so much uncertainty, not to mention the Summer Olympics
00:47kicking off in just three weeks, the president asked Attal to stay on
00:51for the time being.
00:53There's a lot to sort through, not only when it comes to what happened last night,
00:56but more important, what happens next.
00:59Let's start with what went wrong in the second round of these elections
01:02for the far right.
01:03Eliza Herbert has this report.
01:08Sunday night in the national rally headquarters was a sombre mood.
01:12They were hoping to win a majority and instead they came in third,
01:16left wondering what went wrong when victory had seemed so close.
01:21Enter the Republican Front.
01:23At the end of the first round of legislative voting,
01:26France was split almost in three, left, centre and far right.
01:30But instead of dividing, the left New Popular Front
01:33and the presidential centre coalition agreed on one thing.
01:37They had to block the national rally.
01:40After some tactical deal breaking, over 215 of their candidates
01:44withdrew in constituencies where the far right had a clear lead
01:48and with clear success.
01:50When face to face with New Popular Front candidates,
01:52the national rally lost 90 out of 152 seats.
01:56When up against the presidential coalition, they lost 105 out of 128.
02:02But according to this pollster, there was also another reason.
02:08The national rally candidates themselves showed either that they weren't ready
02:12or they still had xenophobic or homophobic candidates among them.
02:18The party included candidates like Lourdes Vendaudi,
02:21who withdrew after a photo circulated of her wearing a Nazi cap.
02:25And Daniel Grenon, who caused outrage by declaring that people born
02:29in northern Africa and raised in France had no place holding high positions.
02:34Critics have also pointed to the unconvincing performance
02:37of many national rally candidates, saying they appeared out of their depth
02:41in debates during the campaign.
02:43The party was also unable to expand its base.
02:46It struck a deal with Eric Ciotti, the Republican leader,
02:49but not the party who cut ties with him when he proffered an alliance
02:52between the two.
02:54Still, there were major wins for the party with over 140 seats.
02:58They were up sizably from their previous high of 89
03:01and took home the most seats of any single party.
03:06And to discuss this further, I'm joined by Dr.
03:08Anna McKeever, a lecturer in political science
03:11at the University of the West of Scotland.
03:14She has an expertise in conservative and far right politics
03:17and an immigration policy.
03:19Thanks so much for being with us here on France 24.
03:22Before we get into what happens next here in France,
03:25how do you see the results of last night?
03:27What was it, a rejection of the far right or an endorsement
03:31of the platform on the left or something in between?
03:36Thanks for having me.
03:37Good evening, everyone.
03:38So, yeah, indeed, the results of the second round of legislative elections
03:44came out a bit unprecedented because everybody was expecting
03:47the national rally getting the biggest share of seats
03:50in the lower chamber of the French parliament.
03:53But we've seen that overall the French population and its majority
03:58has rejected the national rally in the second round last night.
04:03And we've seen the left wing alliance, the Nouveau Front Populaire,
04:07getting the biggest share of votes and biggest share of seats.
04:11So on the one hand, we can see that the national rally
04:15did increase their representation
04:17because they've increased their representation by about 54,
04:2155 seats compared to 2022 legislative election.
04:25But as we've seen during the debates between the first and the second round,
04:29there were a lot of candidates.
04:31They were either openly racist or they were not prepared,
04:36you know, to answer or to debate with
04:40their opponents on their local TV channels.
04:44They were also not always prepared to campaign.
04:46So there were a lot of talk about the fact that a lot of national rally
04:51candidates didn't really do proper campaigning.
04:53And I think the big mistake here that this party made
04:57is that they've capitalized a lot on the personas of Marine Le Pen
05:02and Jordan Berdella when they were trying to appeal to a broader electorate.
05:06And they didn't really do a lot of work on the ground investing in their candidates.
05:11They were often, you know, unprepared.
05:13They didn't know their policy and the program of Rassemblement National.
05:18So I think that's why, you know, they weren't able
05:22to properly kind of appeal to broader population.
05:25But of course, on the on kind of on the majority, we could see that
05:30the population has, you know, the biggest part of the population,
05:33the bigger part has rejected the national rally.
05:36When we think about the national, the sorry, the new popular front,
05:40indeed, so there they were expected to come second after the national rally.
05:46But because of that, partly because the Republican front worked
05:49and the tactical voting,
05:51their candidates were able to get a higher share of seats.
05:56So we are seeing now the kind of three blocks,
06:01the left wing bloc, the centrist ensemble and then the Rassemblement National.
06:06So kind of trip or tide competition between these three blocks.
06:09So there is a lot of political uncertainty and it will be really difficult
06:13for these, you know, for different blocs to form a coalition
06:18because they stand.
06:19They have very different, you know,
06:22platforms on different issues like taxation, like pension.
06:26So indeed, there will be a lot of political discussions about
06:32about the coalition formation.
06:34So what does happen next?
06:36What's your best guess at this point?
06:38Gabrielle Attal remains prime minister, at least for the moment.
06:41Will President Macron try to form a caretaker government?
06:45Indeed, so Gabrielle Attal was asked by Macron to remain the prime minister
06:50while the coalition formation takes place.
06:53So more likely, I see to that the prime minister will be named
06:57by the president and that prime minister will be from the left wing alliance.
07:03Here, it will be essential for the left wing alliance.
07:06Le Nouveau Front Populaire to remain united,
07:09because we know that they have a lot of internal divisions
07:12and the figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon have already been said
07:15by other MPs from this alliance that, you know, it's unlikely
07:19that we're going to see him as the prime minister as he remains a bit too radical
07:24because we need to understand that the prime minister
07:28that is going to govern France needs to make compromises
07:30with both left wing coalition.
07:33So if that person comes from the left wing camp,
07:35but also from Ensemble Alliance, from the centrist alliance.
07:40So it needs to be somebody who is more moderate.
07:43So if left wing Nouveau Front Populaire will be able to remain united,
07:48I do see that it's more likely that it will be the candidate
07:53from the left wing alliance who will be the next prime minister of France.
07:58That remains an open question as to as to who that might be.
08:01I've seen some post election analysis suggesting that perhaps
08:05Emmanuel Macron knew what he was doing when he when he called for these elections,
08:09given that the far right didn't come in first in the second round.
08:13But now the country's been plunged into uncertainty.
08:17Do you think that ultimately this was a mistake on his part?
08:22I think when he called this election, he was maybe hoping
08:26to play a long term strategy, so maybe he was hoping to
08:30have the Rassemblement National in government and try to discredit them,
08:34you know, having the cohabitation government because Rassemblement National
08:37has never been in power.
08:39So and they are populist, radical right party.
08:43So it's always easy to make political promises when you are not in government.
08:46So maybe he was hoping to bring them to government and show the French population
08:50that, well, you know, it's not as easy to fulfill
08:54electoral promises when you're in government.
08:56This electoral strategy hasn't, as we've seen, played,
08:59you know, in favor of Emmanuel Macron because he hasn't come
09:04and his party hasn't come out stronger out of this.
09:07They yes, indeed, they didn't do as bad as expected by,
09:11you know, the predictions, but they have lost
09:14a love and peace compared to 2022 parliamentary election.
09:19So there is a lot of political instability because France needs now
09:23to form different blocs, need to form a coalition more likely.
09:26And France doesn't have the tradition of political coalitions.
09:30So Macron's gamble, in my opinion, didn't pay off
09:33because now France is headed towards a lot of political instability
09:38and talks about the potential coalition where you need to unite
09:42different blocs that have very different positions
09:46on tax and pension and climate.
09:48So, no, I don't think that that was a very wise choice.
09:54Given what you're saying, what does this mean for Emmanuel Macron?
09:57I mean, do you think he can stay in office for the next three years,
09:59given how complicated this is going to be for him to govern?
10:03I mean, yeah, exactly.
10:04It will all depend, you know, who is going to be the next prime minister,
10:08because Emmanuel Macron currently said that he's not going to stand down
10:13and he's going to stay until 2027 presidential election.
10:17And then he obviously can't run again for the third consecutive term.
10:20So it's going to be cohabitation government, cohabitation government anyway.
10:25But it will depend.
10:27You know, it will all depend who's going to be the prime minister
10:31and what forces are going to form the coalition.
10:33If any, is it going to be a minority government?
10:35Are they going to resort again to passing legislation,
10:39resorting to the Article 49.3 constitution?
10:42So without the vote in the National Assembly.
10:44So at the minute, he's saying he's going to stay.
10:47It's too early.
10:48You know, it's too early kind of to speculate whether he's going
10:52to be able to sort of survive,
10:56you know, beyond even next year, because elections cannot
10:59parliamentary elections cannot be called for another year.
11:02But it's definitely going to be a very turbulent year
11:06for the French politicians ahead.
11:09Yeah, turbulent and very uncertain, very uncertain.
11:12Dr. Anna McKeever, a lecturer in political science
11:16at the University of the West of Scotland.
11:17Thanks so much for being with us here on France 24. We appreciate it.
11:21Thank you.
11:22And thank you for watching.
11:23Stay tuned for more world news still to come here on France 24.