French grand coalition: Refusal of LFI and Macron to work together is a 'key stumbling block'
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00:00And France woke up this Monday to political uncertainty after a shock result where a left-wing
00:08alliance has become now the biggest force in the French Parliament.
00:12This after tactical voting held back the far right.
00:15But the shape of the future government remains unclear after no group won an absolute majority
00:20in the second round of parliamentary elections on Sunday.
00:23The left-wing alliance coming out on top and Emmanuel Macron's centrist bloc emerging second.
00:29A Republican front where candidates drop out of the race to keep the far right from power
00:34continued to be effective.
00:36The national rally as a result coming in third place with 143 seats in Parliament.
00:42However, it is its largest seat share to date.
00:46This Monday the Prime Minister tendered his resignation but Emmanuel Macron has asked
00:50Gabriel Attal to remain in his post for now.
00:54Let's cross to Peter O'Brien who's at the Elysee, the French presidential palace.
00:59Peter, President Macron has refused Gabriel Attal's resignation.
01:03So what exactly does that mean?
01:07The reason given by the Elysee palace is that Attal will not be resigning to ensure the
01:13stability of the country for the moment.
01:17What it means in practice is that Attal, as he mentioned he would potentially do in the
01:22speech he made after the results came in last night, will stay on in a kind of caretaker
01:27role ensuring the day-to-day function of the country, especially with such important
01:33events as the Olympic Games and the 14th National Day celebrations coming up.
01:39The next date to watch out for is the 18th of July when the new Parliament sits for the
01:44first time, whereupon up until mid-August there is always this possibility of a vote
01:51of no confidence.
01:53With this kind of caretaker government, the President is hoping that it doesn't come to
01:58that and he's hoping by doing so that this buys time for this new, very diverse Parliament
02:05to actually forge some sort of coalition which would be able to get over the absolute majority
02:10mark and potentially put forward a government.
02:13But it's looking unclear as to whether we'll get that for now.
02:16Peter, we're now looking at a period of horse trading, aren't we?
02:20It's very early days yet, but what is possibly the most likely scenario in terms of that
02:26coalition building?
02:32In terms of what traditionally happens, the Prime Minister that's named by the President
02:39is the one from the majority group in Parliament, even if it's a relative majority.
02:45So that would suggest it's a left-wing Prime Minister that emerges, but really all cards
02:52on the table.
02:53France is going to have to learn how to simply do parliamentary politics in a way that it's
02:58not used to.
02:59This isn't Germany, this isn't Spain, this isn't Italy.
03:02We're not used to having to form a kind of rainbow coalition or a coalition across multiple
03:08sides of the Parliament in a way that happens in other countries.
03:13So many different options are on the table.
03:16One thing for sure is that if there is a coalition to emerge, it won't include the far-right
03:22Rassemblement Nationale.
03:23Certainly if it did, that would be a huge democratic scandal after what the vote we've
03:30just seen.
03:31But yeah, basically we don't really know what's going to happen and we're going to have to
03:35see in the next few weeks and months.
03:38Indeed.
03:39Thank you Peter O'Brien there from the elites and joining me now is Professor Rainbow Murray,
03:44a French politics specialist from the University of London, who's going to be with us for the
03:47next half hour.
03:49Professor Murray, thank you so much for your time.
03:53President Macron has refused resignation of his Prime Minister.
03:56So what are the possible scenarios that we are now facing?
04:02We are facing the scenarios of either a minority government or some kind of coalition to try
04:10and build a majority.
04:13And a minority government could also take multiple different forms because we've already
04:19seen a minority in government for the past two years.
04:21We know that for a minority government to work, it doesn't necessarily need the full
04:26support of Parliament.
04:27It just needs the tacit support of enough MPs who are willing not to overthrow it for
04:34it to continue.
04:36So the current left wing alliance, the New Popular Front, are keen to form a government
04:43as they are, but they are so far short of majority that I don't think they can do it.
04:48The centre have made overtures to the other parties suggesting that they would be willing
04:53to form part of a grand coalition which would presumably have them in the centre, not just
05:01sort of in terms of where they sit on the spectrum, but also as the sort of the broker
05:05between the different parties.
05:08The right have made it clear that for now they're not interested in being part of any
05:12such grand coalition.
05:14So the question is whether these parties can work together.
05:17But one of the key stumbling blocks is that the left wing alliance includes the far left.
05:22The far left won't work with the centre.
05:24The centre won't work with the far left.
05:26So if there is to be any kind of broader alliance, it's going to have to ask the other left wing
05:31parties to decouple themselves from the far left.
05:34There is no indication as yet that they're willing to do so.
05:37Their willingness would probably depend on negotiations about who would lead any such
05:42government, i.e. who would be nominated as prime minister.
05:46And that's one of the main things that is going to have to be broached at the very starting
05:50point of these negotiations.
05:52And the reality is, Professor, even if you manage to cobble together alliance of the
05:57centrist and the more centre left parties, they still have vastly diverging positions
06:02when it comes to green energy and pension reform and so on, don't they?
06:07They really do.
06:08And you mentioned pension reform.
06:10I think that's going to be a key sticking point.
06:13For Macron, it's a flagship policy that he staked his second presidency on.
06:18He achieved what many of his predecessors attempted and failed.
06:21He has raised the retirement age and he's done so at great political cost.
06:25One of the reasons why his party lost a lot of seats in this election was because of the
06:29unpopularity of this pension reform.
06:33But now that it has been passed, he is going to be extremely reluctant to throw away something
06:39that he has gained at such great cost and allow it to be changed.
06:44Whereas for the left, this was also one of their flagship policies to reverse the pension
06:48reform, to lower the retirement age back to where it was.
06:51So there is going to be some tense discussions about pensions, whether any compromise in
06:57the future is possible or whether that one is simply kicked to the long grass as something
07:03that's a fait accompli and can't be revisited.
07:06If they don't go back on pension reforms, then Macron is clearly going to have to make
07:10some other kind of concessions if he wants the left to work with him.
07:14One thing that he could do, obviously, is concede on who becomes the prime minister.
07:18Another is that it might be possible to revisit the recent legislation that was passed on
07:23immigration, which is another area where there was strong opposition from the left.
07:28But any reform of the recent immigration bill would further alienate the prospect of bringing
07:36in anybody from the right.
07:38So it's not going to be easy.
07:40There are no obvious solutions or low-hanging fruit that the groups can work together with.
07:45Potentially, maybe with the environment, they might be able to find some easier common ground.
07:50But I think anything that has been part of Macron's legacy that has been contested by
07:55the left is going to be a sore point in the negotiations.