Macron presser: 'Clear lurch to the right', expert says
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00:00I'd like to go across to Ariane Bogaine, Senior Lecturer in French Politics at Northumbria
00:05University.
00:06Good afternoon.
00:07Thank you for joining us here on the program today.
00:10What did you make of Emmanuel Macron's speech?
00:12Was he successful in justifying his decision to dissolve parliament?
00:16Okay, I have to say I only saw the first half an hour, the day job then took over.
00:24What I saw, first of all, was the overall message is me or the extremes.
00:30It's a kind of me or chaos.
00:32Sorry.
00:33You know, if you want stability, if you don't want political uncertainty, vote for me.
00:39Which was always going to be the way it was going to frame this.
00:44In terms of the speech, personally, I felt that it was far too long and it's nothing
00:49new.
00:50We've seen this before in this various interviews, TV interviews in the past two months.
00:56And again, it's a clear lurch to the right with, you know, the focus on immigration,
01:00on laicite, on security.
01:03So I'm not convinced that it will, you know, convince anyone.
01:08And actually, I think he should, he should move away from the campaign and he should
01:13let, you know, Gabriel Attal and he should let the candidates do the campaign.
01:18Now, if you forgive my football analogy, it's like when a manager loses the locker
01:24room, you know, and in that, when that happens, nobody really listened to you anymore.
01:30And I think this is what has happened with Macron.
01:33Last week, we had a whole week, really, of Macron talking because of the, you know, D-Day
01:40landing, loads of speeches, a TV interview.
01:44It's always the same and he's not listened to anymore.
01:47So we could see where it's going with this, me or chaos, me or the extremes, voter stability.
01:54But I don't think it was particularly inspiring.
01:58But I only saw the first half an hour, I didn't hear the, you know, the question that journalists
02:03were asking.
02:05Let me jump in that because we, as our international affairs editor Angela Diffley was saying,
02:10basically what Emmanuel Macron said, yes, it's either going to be you vote for chaos
02:15or you vote for me and I'll continue to do what I've been doing.
02:18And this is the problem, isn't it?
02:20Yeah, I think what, you know, what is needed, and we didn't have that in 2022 because the
02:27presidential campaign was curtailed because of the situation in Ukraine.
02:31The parliamentary campaign was also very minimal.
02:35We never got a feeling of what do you want to do?
02:40What is your vision for French society?
02:43What is your vision?
02:44What are you trying to create?
02:46So he gave in that speech this morning a lot of lists, a long list of items, of topics
02:53that he'd like to tackle and reforms.
02:56OK, but why do you need to do those reforms?
02:59What is the, you know, the overall vision?
03:02And we still don't have that.
03:04So it might come with, you know, when the campaign starts properly, but I just felt
03:10this is reheated.
03:12It's more of the same.
03:13And apart from saying me or the chaos, you know, what does it bring?
03:19What new things does he bring?
03:21And personally, I didn't see it this morning.
03:23Ariane, we have less than three weeks to go.
03:26I believe we have 18 days or so until the first round of the vote.
03:31Things can happen.
03:32But let's just, for argument's sake, assume that the polls are going to be proven correct
03:37and that the far right does, in fact, make gains.
03:41What happens then?
03:42Will Emmanuel Macron be able to to have a far right prime minister, given that he he's
03:49not good with government, with coalitions in government?
03:53Well, I mean, there are two scenarios if the polls are right.
03:57One is the far right winning an absolute majority.
04:00So that would be 289 MPs.
04:03Currently they have 89.
04:04So it would be an extra 200.
04:06It's difficult because the electoral system is very different from the European one.
04:11It's not proportional.
04:12It's two rounds.
04:13There will be some kind of anti far right Republican front, but it's not impossible.
04:20If that's the case, then Macron does not have a choice.
04:24He will have to appoint a far right prime minister.
04:27If he doesn't want to do that, then the only possible solution would be to resign.
04:32And at the rate of things going dominant in France, you know, it might it might happen.
04:37Well, he's ruled out resigning.
04:41I want to ask you about the possibility of the far left also making gains, because there
04:46is this loose left wing alliance for now.
04:49But Emmanuel Macron is trying to poke holes in that alliance as well.
04:53He sort of alluded to the fact that the France Unbowed, the far left party led by Jean-Luc
04:59Mélenchon, it could be is anti-Semitic based on certain statements that have been made.
05:04I mean, look, you know, it will all be down to numbers.
05:08If we have an absolute majority, either for the far right or for the left, for the United
05:12Left, if it stays united, then Macron will have no choice.
05:17So the prime minister will either be far right or far left.
05:20If there is no majority and we have a relative majority, then it all depends on numbers.
05:26If it's a relative majority for his party or parties, then it's back to square one and
05:31we'll be in the same situation as now.
05:33If the relative majority is for the national rally, then will they manage to hoover up
05:40enough, you know, enough MPs to form an absolute majority?
05:47If it's the left who has a relative majority, then the same question will be asked.
05:52So anything can happen.
05:57Anything can happen.
05:58But one thing Emmanuel Macron said is he triggered this vote because he doesn't want to give
06:03the far right the keys to the Elysee Palace in 2027.
06:07But what, for argument's sake, if the far right does come out on top in these parliamentary
06:13polls and then doesn't really mess up and like what we've seen in Italy with Giorgio
06:18Meloni, is Emmanuel Macron essentially normalizing the far right here?
06:24He is.
06:25You're totally right.
06:26He is.
06:27Because and the idea that you would, you would, you know, have a, sorry, a far right prime
06:34minister and he's bound to mess up.
06:38I mean, this is so wrong on so many levels, but yes, it would be normalizing the far right.
06:47And, you know, if the far right is, is, is, you know, half clever, they would know this
06:52and they would make sure that during the next three years they don't mess up too much.
06:56So if that is the bet, it's, it's the most stupid bet I've ever heard.
07:00Sorry for being, for being so blunt.
07:02We like your honesty.
07:03But, you know, I mean, I saw the polls yesterday and they were predicting a victory for, for
07:10the far right.
07:11But we don't know if it would be an absolute majority, in which case there will be a far
07:16right prime minister, unless Macron resigns, or if it would be a relative majority.
07:22And then who knows what's going to happen?
07:25Will there be all the other parties getting together to form their own majority?
07:30Because he can't dissolve the National Assembly for another year, or will we have some kind
07:34of technical government like Belgium has known or Italy has known?
07:38So it's, it's, it's a big, you know, leap into, into the unknown.
07:43Obviously, for him, the best scenario would be an absolute majority.
07:47I don't think he's going to get it, or a relative majority.
07:50But then we will have had all this mayhem to basically go back to square one.
07:56To end up where we were exactly, Ariane, always a pleasure speaking to you.
07:59Thank you very much for that.
08:00Thank you.