Coup for democracy or 'palace coup'? Will Gabon's opposition 'be implicated in the transition process?'
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 Let's get some analysis then on what's happening in Gabon. I'm very pleased to be joined now on
00:04 the programme live by Nicholas Norbrook. He's the Managing Editor at the Africa Report. Welcome to
00:11 the programme, sir. Thanks for joining us. Thank you.
00:13 Can I get your thoughts first of all on Gabon's new military leader, Brice Olegwe N'Guama?
00:20 As we heard in that report we played a short while ago, he was close to the Bongo family for many
00:26 years. He previously worked directly with the former president Omar Bongo. So I wonder whether
00:31 you think his appointment now actually represents much of a break with the past?
00:35 He's linked to the point where, you know, it's believed he's actually related or his mother was
00:43 related in some way to Omar Bongo, Ali Ben's father. So when people suggest this is a palace
00:51 coup, this is simply one arm of the family which is fighting against the other arm, there is a lot
01:00 which I think needs to be unpacked. If this really was about irregularities in the election,
01:10 which is what the commander of the presidential guard claims is behind the coup, the fact that
01:16 this election was stolen, then one would expect the runner up in the election to either be handed
01:24 the prize of the presidency, or at least be very much implicated in this transition process. Now
01:30 it's very early days. And maybe that is what's going to happen. But certainly that would be a
01:35 red flag for all those who believe this is a palace coup, if the opposition is sidelined again.
01:42 So far then, I appreciate as you say it is early days, but are there signs that the military
01:49 leadership is interested in some kind of democratic transition? Or do you think they
01:53 will try to hold power now? It does appear as though they are making all the right noises in
02:00 terms of saying they want to transition. But when one sees images of the commander Olegiy being
02:09 bounced on the shoulders of his men, and the men are shouting Olegiy, President, it rather suggests
02:16 that this is a coup where the people who carry out the coup stay in power. That's what it looks like
02:25 right now. And that may be the case. But something that's really rather interesting, I find is the
02:33 images we've seen coming out of Libreville in the past 24 hours, people sort of celebrating,
02:39 delighted apparently that the military have seized power. As we heard in that report a bit earlier as
02:45 well. Gabon has quite a bit of oil wealth, but lots of people in the country are really poor. So
02:51 does that suggest to you actually the military leadership for the moment has quite a bit of
02:57 support in Gabon? Some of the key opposition coalitions have been saying things like,
03:05 you know, we are emerging from a national coma. Finally, the military have done what we've not
03:12 managed to do democratically. And there is absolutely euphoria because 55 years of a
03:20 single family running a country can only really mean one thing. So I think that, you know,
03:27 you can even see it in the in the fairly muted response internationally. You have not seen many
03:34 African leaders rush out to say this is outrageous. The head of the African Union did his usual speech
03:40 about how coups are not tolerated. But even sort of the heavyweight players, such as France,
03:47 which is deeply, deeply implicated in the economy, while they condemned the coup, they did say
03:53 that they recognize there had been severe irregularities in the election. So of course,
04:00 there is a general feeling that it is a good thing to have turned the page on the bongos. I guess
04:08 what everyone is waiting to find out is have we really turned the page on the bongos? Or is this
04:14 the replacement of the bongos by another bongo like system?
04:17 And of course, we'll have to wait and see, you know, what happens, as you say, in the days and
04:22 weeks ahead. But in terms of that initial international response that you touched upon,
04:26 the African Union is supposed to hold a meeting on the situation in Gabon today, the central
04:32 African bloc, ECAS is also meeting. Do you think we won't hear? Do you think we'll hear anything
04:39 tangible coming out of these meetings? Should we expect much?
04:43 I think if ECOWAS led by a civilian leader in President Tsenabu couldn't manage to corral
04:55 West African leaders behind any kind of intervention in Niger, we are very, very unlikely to see
05:01 any kind of intervention, as it were, in Gabon. I think what we will probably see is the usual
05:09 round of diplomatic condemnation, etc. And, and largely a wait and see approach to the next moves
05:20 of Commander Oligui.
05:22 And just a final thought, you mentioned that coup d'etat in Niger just a month ago, this then
05:29 being the eighth coup in Central and West Africa in the past three years. How is what we're seeing
05:37 in Gabon, sort of a part of a coup contagion? Or is it quite distinct from what we've witnessed
05:42 earlier this year in Niger and in places like Mali as well?
05:45 I think there's an element of timing. I think probably the coup leaders in Gabon, having seen
05:55 how toothless ultimately, the international community and especially the African regional
06:03 bodies were for a place which is so strategic in terms of the fight against Islamic terror in
06:10 the Sahel, you know, the failure to get together, no doubt emboldened the coup makers in Gabon.
06:19 And it may well be some kind of a domino effect. Each coup emboldens the next set of coup makers.
06:27 Nicholas Norbrook from the Africa Report. Thank you very much.
06:31 Thank you very much.
06:32 Thanks.