Prof. Jameel, who is the Director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University, said that although broadly speaking the worst could be over, the country “must remain alert to localised spikes and mutant viruses, especially when vaccines are being rolled out.”

Asked by The Wire if his belief that the worst is broadly over means India, unlike Europe and America, will not see a second spike, Prof. Jameel said: “Although the lesson we have learnt is never assume anything about this virus and never think we are different from other countries nonetheless, at the moment, it does look as if India may not see a second spike.”

After saying he was indulging in “loud thinking” Prof. Jameel explained himself more fully. He said: “We may already have 30-40% people infected in India. In urban India, this could be as high as 50-60%.” Prof. Jameel added that the second serosurvey, which is now two months old, suggests that as many as 150-200 million people are infected. Since the survey came out that figure could have probably risen considerably. “This,” he said, “is a viable explanation” for the belief that the worst is over and India will not see a second spike.