In an interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire Pronab Sen, who is presently the Country Director of the International Growth Centre and also Chairman of the Government’s Standing Committee on Economic Statistics, said that for the year as a whole GDP could perhaps shrink by up to 14%. Earlier he had forecast a minus 12.5% figure but now, because of the collapse in demand and the increasing rate of COVID infections, he was increasing the figure to 14%. Speaking about agriculture, the one sector of the economy that in Quarter 1 grew by 3.4%, Pronab Sen said he was very worried about the fact farmer incomes have not seen a corresponding rise. He believes it’s possible that rural demand could stagnate or shrink whilst farmer distress increases. At a time when demand nationwide is missing and fear is prompting people to save rather than spend, the situation facing farmers could exacerbate the nationwide demand problem.
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