Uncertainty in life cycle inventories: Monte Carlo and fuzzy sets treatments - Marco Antonio Sabara

The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an impact research methodology that focuses on the life cycle of a product (by extension, services), and is standardized by the ISO 14000 Series. This methodology has been applied in so many areas related to sustainable development, in order to evaluate the environmental, economic and social aspects of the processes of production and distribution of products and service goods. Despite this wide range of applications, the technique still presents weaknesses, especially in the question of the evaluation and expression of the uncertainties present in the various phases of the studies and inherent to the stochastic or subjective variations of the data sources and the generation of models, sometimes reducing the consistency and accuracy of the proposed results. In the present study, we evaluated a methodology to deal with the best expression of such uncertainties in LCA studies, focusing on the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) phase. The hypothesis explored was that the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Set Theory to the estimation and analysis of stochastic uncertainties in LCA allows a better expression of the level of uncertainty in terms of the Guide to Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (ISO GUM 2008), in situations where the original life cycle inventory does not specify the initial uncertainties. The iron ore transport was selected as a process unit by means of an off-road- truck (OHT) with a load capacity of 220 tons and a power of 1700 kW, acting on the route between the mine and the primary crushing of a mining company, in the city of Congonhas (MG). Monte Carlo simulations and Fuzzy Set Theory applications were performed using spreadsheets (MS Excel). The LCA study was conducted in OpenLCA 1.6 (open source) software from data inventories of ELCD database 3.2 (European Reference Life Cycle Database), also freely accessible. The results obtained were statistically compared using Hypothesis Test and Variance Analysis to identify the effect of the techniques on the results of the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) and a Sensitivity Analysis was performed to test the effect of the treatment and function of the distribution of probabilities in the expression of the parameters associated with the items of the original life cycle inventory. Research indicated that inventories with treated data may have their uncertainty expressed to a lesser degree than that expressed in the original inventory, with no change in the final values of the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). The treatment of life cycle inventory data through Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Set Theory resulted in the possibility of expressing the LCI results with a degree of uncertainty lower than that used to express the uncertainty under the standards. Data treatment through Monte Carlo simulation with normal probability distribution showed the lowest values of uncertainty expression with significant difference in relation to th