why-the-jazz-will-roll-against-the-blazers-and-more-nba-best-bets-for-thursday
- 4 years ago
It's only fitting that on a day in which most of us will be eating leftovers, the NBA decides to give us scraps. The league's best teams all played on Christmas, and with back-to-backs severely limited, we are now forced to spend Dec. 26 subsisting on a diet of mediocrity. Only one team with a top-five record in its conference will play tonight, and that is the Dallas Mavericks with a hobbled Luka Doncic. Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz: Jazz -5.5
Don't look now, but the Jazz seem to be figuring things out offensively. They have scored 113.4 points per 100 possessions over their past six games, sixth-best in the NBA in that span. That Mike Conley has missed most of those games is discouraging in the long run, but it has simplified matters significantly for the moment. Donovan Mitchell runs the bulk of the offense, and Joe Ingles has been significantly better as a starter, shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 50.9 percent behind the arc in that role compared to 36.2 and 31.2 percent off of the bench. With Bojan Bogdanovic in place of Derrick Favors, the Jazz look like an amped-up version of their 2018-19 selves at the moment, and gamblers should take advantage of it while it lasts.
But hey, money is money, and it's not as if winning it on the league's best teams counts for extra. So let's dive into Christmas' sloppy seconds with our top picks of the day. All lines via William Hill.Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings: Kings -5
The degree to which the Timberwolves rely on Karl-Anthony Towns offensively is rather staggering. They score 16.9 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the bench. On a per-game basis, he is responsible for 28.5 percent of Minnesota's made 3-pointers, yet he also posts up more than all but four players in the NBA and scores on such plays at a fairly efficient rate. He is even second on the team in assists. There is a reason that Minnesota hasn't won a game since Towns went down. They can't score without him. He'll either sit this game out as well, or he'll play hobbled. Either way, without their best player at full strength, I can't in good conscience pick the Wolves in a road game against a good team. Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons: Under 229
The Wizards are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, but they score a relatively pedestrian 105.9 points per 100 possessions when Davis Bertans is out, as he will be tonight. The Pistons have performed admirably in the face of injuries lately, but with practically everyone dealing with some health issue or another, including key players like Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard, there will eventually come a point at which it is too much to overcome. Tonight seems like a decent bet.
Don't look now, but the Jazz seem to be figuring things out offensively. They have scored 113.4 points per 100 possessions over their past six games, sixth-best in the NBA in that span. That Mike Conley has missed most of those games is discouraging in the long run, but it has simplified matters significantly for the moment. Donovan Mitchell runs the bulk of the offense, and Joe Ingles has been significantly better as a starter, shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 50.9 percent behind the arc in that role compared to 36.2 and 31.2 percent off of the bench. With Bojan Bogdanovic in place of Derrick Favors, the Jazz look like an amped-up version of their 2018-19 selves at the moment, and gamblers should take advantage of it while it lasts.
But hey, money is money, and it's not as if winning it on the league's best teams counts for extra. So let's dive into Christmas' sloppy seconds with our top picks of the day. All lines via William Hill.Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings: Kings -5
The degree to which the Timberwolves rely on Karl-Anthony Towns offensively is rather staggering. They score 16.9 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the bench. On a per-game basis, he is responsible for 28.5 percent of Minnesota's made 3-pointers, yet he also posts up more than all but four players in the NBA and scores on such plays at a fairly efficient rate. He is even second on the team in assists. There is a reason that Minnesota hasn't won a game since Towns went down. They can't score without him. He'll either sit this game out as well, or he'll play hobbled. Either way, without their best player at full strength, I can't in good conscience pick the Wolves in a road game against a good team. Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons: Under 229
The Wizards are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, but they score a relatively pedestrian 105.9 points per 100 possessions when Davis Bertans is out, as he will be tonight. The Pistons have performed admirably in the face of injuries lately, but with practically everyone dealing with some health issue or another, including key players like Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard, there will eventually come a point at which it is too much to overcome. Tonight seems like a decent bet.