Who Will Be Trump’s Pick to Lead the Fed? We Asked Experts to Rate the Odds
- 7 years ago
Who Will Be Trump’s Pick to Lead the Fed? We Asked Experts to Rate the Odds
Ms. Yellen has a possibility of being renominated, according to this consensus, but it is only 22 percent; experts think
that Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor with deep Republican ties, has a slightly better chance at 23 percent.
But those two top contenders combine for lower than 50 percent odds in our expert survey — meaning
that our panelists thought there was a better-than-even chance that the appointment will be one of many contenders with individually modest but collectively high chances of rising to the top of the president’s list.
On Thursday afternoon, trading on PredictIt implied 30 percent odds for Ms. Yellen and 28 percent for Mr. Warsh.
If Mr. Trump wanted a nominee who would probably maintain continuity with current Fed policy
but was more conservative and business-minded than Ms. Yellen, Mr. Powell would be a below-the-radar option.
“Although President Trump is unorthodox in many ways, every president wants calm financial markets.”
The case against Ms. Yellen is similarly straightforward: She is a liberal economist in a government dominated by conservatives.
Ms. Yellen has a possibility of being renominated, according to this consensus, but it is only 22 percent; experts think
that Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor with deep Republican ties, has a slightly better chance at 23 percent.
But those two top contenders combine for lower than 50 percent odds in our expert survey — meaning
that our panelists thought there was a better-than-even chance that the appointment will be one of many contenders with individually modest but collectively high chances of rising to the top of the president’s list.
On Thursday afternoon, trading on PredictIt implied 30 percent odds for Ms. Yellen and 28 percent for Mr. Warsh.
If Mr. Trump wanted a nominee who would probably maintain continuity with current Fed policy
but was more conservative and business-minded than Ms. Yellen, Mr. Powell would be a below-the-radar option.
“Although President Trump is unorthodox in many ways, every president wants calm financial markets.”
The case against Ms. Yellen is similarly straightforward: She is a liberal economist in a government dominated by conservatives.