The plan could shift trillions of dollars of wealth from Americans to foreigners; set off an emerging markets financial crisis; wreak havoc in global oil markets;

  • 7 years ago
The plan could shift trillions of dollars of wealth from Americans to foreigners; set off an emerging markets financial crisis; wreak havoc in global oil markets;
and cause sustained harm to the American higher education and tourism industries (including, as it happens, luxury hotels with President Trump’s name on them).
But economists believe the change in the tax code would lead to shifts in the currency markets
that offset those moves, namely to a sharp rise in the value of the dollar compared with other currencies.
Perhaps the most irony-rich consequence of such a tax overhaul — which would, presumably, be signed
by President Trump — would be the damage to the tourism and education sectors in the United States.
The United States might well have a better, more efficient tax code today if, starting a century ago, lawmakers had designed it so
that businesses were taxed on where their sales and expenses take place, as the Republicans’ plan calls for.
Supporters think the dollar will rise that much if the plan is enacted — indeed, it must
happen, to avoid sticking Americans with much higher prices for imported consumer goods.
But according to calculations by Michael J. Graetz, a Columbia law professor, a currency shift of
that scale implies that Americans who hold foreign assets would lose $6.1 trillion, and foreign holders of assets in the United States would gain as much as $8.1 trillion.
Given all that, any fundamental change in the corporate tax code will create powerful ripples
— some quite predictable, others less so — across the business and financial landscape.